Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals MLB Betting Pick – July 4

It will be a loaded slate of MLB action on the 4th of July, and what better way to start things off than an early start in Washington, DC as the Nats host their divisional rivals, the Miami Marlins.

These two clubs will renew their rivalry, but it has been fairly one-sided to date in 2022. Miami has won all three contests thus far, and continue to make an improbable push for a wild-card spot in a competitive National League race. Spurred on by their young talent, the Marlins continue to impress, a potential sign of things to come for this youthful club.

For the Nationals, they’ve been one of the worst teams in baseball, and most of their storylines have been negative, and taken place away from the field. Washington continues to undergo a bitter struggle to sign their star player Juan Soto to a long-term contract. Though initial offers have been rejected, the Nats still have time – but you get the sense that it’s taking away from the club’s on-field showing. It’s believed Soto will sit out Monday due to tightness in his left calf.

PITCHING PROBABLES: Marlins: Braxton Garrett (1-3, 5.24 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 22 strikeouts); Nationals: Patrick Corbin (4-10, 6.06 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 75 strikeouts)

Monday’s matchup features two pitchers trending in opposite directions, somewhat symbolic of the teams they throw for. Braxton Garrett continues an impressive stretch for Miami, showing the promise that many within the organize believed he could fulfill. He boasts an impressive repertoire of pitches, and the lefty has been much better of late.

For veteran Patrick Corbin, he hasn’t shaken off the struggles the way Garrett has in 2022. He’s 4-10 with a 1.70 WHIP, and he enters Monday giving up a .390 xwOBA and a .307 xBA. Corbin is showing signs of being finished as a pitcher, and it seems unlikely that he’s the guy to drag the Nats out of this prolonged slump.

For added insight, the latest news, tends, and analysis, continue reading on beneath the posted odds for our breakdown and betting prediction for this NL East showdown. It’s the fourth of July, and what’s better than baseball, betting, and perhaps some beers and dogs, too! Enjoy the game, folks!

Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Live Odds & Betting History

Betting odds provided by BOVADA

  • Miami Marlins +1.5 (-200)
  • Washington Nationals -1.5 (+180)
  • Miami Marlins (-110)
  • Washington Nationals (-110)
  • Over 9.5 (-110)
  • Under 9.5 (-110)
Overall Record 36-40 29-52
Over/Under/Push 39-36-2 40-37-4
Home/Away Record 18-24 14-30
Runs Per Game 4.4 4.0
Runs Allowed Per Game 4.3 5.5
Team Batting Average .244 .253
Bullpen ERA 4.22 4.41

Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Prediction:

As we get deeper into the season, the games become more and more vital for the Miami Marlins and their potential playoff chase. And though they’re still without star 2B Jazz Chisholm, this offense has been impressive of late, and that stretch should definitely continue vs. a beaten down Patrick Corbin.

Over his past 15 innings, Corbin has somehow allowed 11 runs. That’s a recipe for disaster against a hot-hitting Miami squad, as well as one that can do a ton of damage on the basepaths. Behind Corbin, don’t expect much help or relief, as the Nats boast one of the worst bullpens in baseball.

It’ll be up to Braxton Garrett to ensure he doesn’t equal Corbin though in terms of futility. And while Garrett’s numbers are comparable, he has at least been a bit better in recent outings, and fits the profile of a pitcher that can and should frustrate a Nats’ lineup without Juan Soto.


Expect the Miami offense to again be the story on the 4th of July. Miami tunes up left-handed pitchers, and has already had their way with Patrick Corbin before. This lineup boasts a nearly .300 xBA vs. the Nats’ lefty, and should be able to get on base with ease. Garrett Cooper continues his power surge, while Jon Berti should be dynamic in terms of stealing bases and making things happen with his feet.

While Corbin might have been good his last time out, the way Miami is swinging the bat right now is hard to ignore. A four-game sweep is a rare feat in the sport of baseball, but the Marlins’ offense has dominated Corbin historically, and the veteran should give way to a porous bullpen fairly early in this contest.

Marlins vs. Nationals Trends To Know:

  • Marlins are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
  • Marlins are 4-0 in their last 4 games on grass.
  • Marlins are 11-1 in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
  • Marlins are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
  • Nationals are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
  • Marlins are 17-5 in the last 22 meetings.

Miami has typically dominated in these spots, and in recent seasons, the Marlins have really routed the fading Nationals.  Washington has struggled all season vs. power lefties, and what Garrett offers should far exceed what Corbin can do, despite his last outing.  Expect Miami to feast on a tired team without Juan Soto, en route to a crucial sweep of the lowly Nats. 

Our Pick
Will S. / Author

Will has been working with The Sports Geek since its early days back in 2010. He began as a soccer specialist, focusing on detailed reports for major international competitions, including the World Cup and European Championships. Since then, he has produced weekly pick articles on both the NFL and English Premier League, while also contributing blog posts on the NHL, MLB, and even WWE wrestling. Will is also an avid sports bettor and daily fantasy player, always eager to share his thoughts and insight on anything going on in the world of sports.

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