Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres MLB Odds and Pick for May 23rd

We have 12 games on the MLB slate for Monday, 10 of which will start at 7:05 ET or later. One of the later games on the schedule will take place in Southern California, where two of the National League’s top teams will tanle. The San Diego Padres will host the Milwaukee Brewers on Monday night.

Despite the continued absence of Fernando Tatis Jr., the Padres are flying high. San Diego went into San Francisco over the weekend and came away with a very impressive three-game sweep over the reigning NL West champions.
The Pads are off to a 27-14 start in Bob Melvin’s first season on the bench. In spite of a number of injuries, San Diego enters play Monday just a half-game behind the first-place LA Dodgers in what should be a fascinating division.

The Brewers, meanwhile, are atop the NL Central at 26-15 thus far. The Brew Crew won two of three from the Nationals in Milwaukee over the weekend, though Washington did take the series finale on Sunday afternoon.

Bovada oddsmakers have the Padres listed as slight home favorites in tonight’s clash. Nick Martinez will toe the rubber for the Pads, while Adrian Houser gets the call for the visitors.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers have made postseason appearances in each of the last four years, so first place is nothing new to them. That said, Milwaukee has won only one playoff series in that span, which came back in 2018. Milwaukee cruised to an NL Central division title last season, only to fall in upset fashion to the eventual World Series champion Atlanta Braves in the Division Series.

Milwaukee has four legitimate All-Star-caliber starting pitchers. Corbin Burnes is the defending NL Cy Young winner, while Brandon Woodruff, Eric Lauer, and Freddy Peralta would all be top-of-the-rotation starters for most other teams. However, the fifth starting spot is in flux. Adrian Houser is holding it down for now, but he hasn’t gotten off to the best of starts.

Houser does have a solid 3.22 ERA through his first seven starts of the year, but his overall numbers are underwhelming. Houser is 3-4 overall, and his walk rate is north of 10 percent for the second consecutive season. Houser is more of a groundball pitcher than a strikeout pitcher, but his 48.1 percent groundball rate so far this year is the lowest of his major-league career.

On the flip side, Houser has been a bit unlucky. His .284 BABIP allowed is higher than the big-league average, while his strand rate is lower than average. The MLB average strand rate is around 72 percent, but Houser has stranded only 63 percent of the runners that have reached base against him on the year.
The Padres do have some power in the lineup, but most of their more threatening bats swing it from the right side of the plate.

Houser owns a career 61.7 percent groundball rate against right-handed hitters, which should help him contain the likes of Manny Machado, Luke Voit, and Wil Myers in this one.

San Diego Padres

The Padres keep winning games despite a middling run differential. San Diego has only outscored their opponents by 29 runs on the year, yet they’re an impressive 13 games over the .500 mark. The Dodgers, by comparison, are only a half-game ahead of the Padres despite a vastly superior plus-88 run differential so far in 2022.

The Pads will also hit a soft spot in their rotation tonight with Nick Martinez set to draw the start.

Martinez is 2-2 with a 3.89 ERA this season through seven games, including six starts. His 25 percent strikeout rate is well north of his career MLB average of just 13.9 percent. Martinez is undoubtedly better than he was earlier in his career, but it’s worth wondering whether he can continue to miss bats at such a healthy clip.

Control has also been a problem. Martinez has walked 10.4 percent of the hitters he’s faced, which means he’s been dealing with a steady stream of traffic on the basepaths.

In spite of that, Martinez has done a fine job of stranding runners. Nearly 83 percent of those that have reached against Martinez failed to come around to score. This means Martinez has been a bit lucky in that regard, which signals regression could be on the way.

Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres MLB Game Pick

The Brewers are an impressive 14-6 so far this season at home, but they haven’t enjoyed quite as much success on the road. Milwaukee is 12-9 away from home, while San Diego is off to a fair 10-7 start at Petco Park.

Please Note:
Based on the numbers, you can argue Houser is the more likely pitcher in this game to see his fortunes change for the better moving forward. I would expect Houser’s groundball rate to continue to trend north, while Martinez likely won’t sustain his success with stranding runners for much longer.

These two teams are generally evenly-matched, which is why I like the value on Milwaukee to take this one on the road. I have a lot more faith in Houser to turn things around, while I’ll have to see more of Martinez in order to buy what he’s selling. The Brewers’ -102 moneyline odds really stand out in this one, so take Milwaukee to claim the series opener.


Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres Betting Recap

  • Moneyline: Brewers -102, Padres -108
  • Runline: Brewers +1.5 (-205), Padres -1.5 (+175)
  • Over/Under: Over 8 runs (-110), Under 8 runs (-110)
  • Pick: Brewers (-102)


Taylor Smith / Author

Taylor is a sports writer based in Southern California. While he primarily specializes in basketball, baseball and football, he will also dabble in things like soccer and politics from time to time. He has lived in just about every corner of the United States at one point or another, and he has been covering sports and sports betting for the better part of a decade. Taylor currently lives in Long Beach with his fiancé and their two cats.

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