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Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds MLB Pick – July 1st

The MLB enters the month of July with a total of six games up on the board to start out Monday night. One of the top matchups on the board is between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Cincinnati Reds. These two teams continue to stick around in the NL Central and will look to take an early edge in this series. This game is expected to start at around 7:10 PM Eastern time.

Milwaukee has earned a record of 45-39 to this point in the season, which has them in second place of the NL Central. The Brewers have just finished up a series against the Pittsburgh Pirates, winning two of the three games in that series. Milwaukee ended that homestand with a record of 5-5. The Brewers will look to take a step in the right direction with a win to start this road trip on Monday night.

The Reds are currently sitting in fifth place of the NL Central with a record of 38-43 this season. Cincinnati started their most recent homestand with a 2-1 series win against the division-leading Chicago Cubs. The Reds will look to continue this homestand with a strong start against the Brewers, who have gotten the better of them to this point in the season.

These two teams are both sitting behind in the NL Central, with the Chicago Cubs being the leading team. This division is still very much up for grabs though, with Cincinnati only being five and a half games back from the top spot. The Reds will look to try and win this series battle against Milwaukee to try and climb that ladder back to the top.

Previous Matchups

The first series between these two teams was early in the season in Cincinnati. The Brewers were able to get a win in the first game off of a strong start with three runs in the top of the first inning. Milwaukee finished with a 4-3 win in that game. The second game finished 4-3 in favor of the Brewers once again, this time off a three-run home run by Orlando Arcia in the top of the sixth. Milwaukee won the final game 1-0 led behind Freddy Peralta’s performance as he allowed two hits in eight innings pitched.

The second series was a short two-game series in Milwaukee on May 21-22. The Reds had three runs in the first inning and rode that to a 3-0 win to start out the series. Sonny Gray pitched six innings allowing five hits. The second game of the series went in favor of the Brewers as Yasmani Grandel hit a two-run home run in route to a five-run sixth inning. Milwaukee went on to win 11-9.

The most recent series between these two teams was between June 20-23 in Milwaukee. The first game was won 7-1 by the Reds as Jose Iglesias had four RBI’s, while Nick Senzel had three RBI’s. The second game also went in favor of Cincinnati as Yasiel Puig had three RBI’s and Jose Iglesias tacked on another two in an 11-7 win. The Brewers finally broke through in the third game on a 4 run first inning as they took it 6-5. Game four was a 7-5 win by Milwaukee on a five-run bottom of the third inning.

These two teams have played in two even series in Milwaukee going 3-3 against each other. In Cincinnati though, the Brewers have gone 3-0. The Reds will look to protect their ballpark by bouncing back with a win in the first game of a four-game series.

Batting

Christian Yelich is having a season to remember this season when it comes to hitting. Yelich has 64 hits, 29 home runs, 63 RBI’s and a batting average of .327 this season. Mike Moustakas has 50 hits, 23 home runs and 49 RBI’s. Lorenzo Cain has 47 hits, while Yasmani Grandal has 18 home runs and 46 RBI’s this season.

The Reds have had some nice depth when it comes to hitting this season. Joey Votto and Jose Iglesias both have 74 hits on the season. Eugenio Suarez has 72 hits, 16 home runs and 45 RBI’s. Yasiel Puig has 67 hits, 17 home runs and 45 RBI’s. Derek Dietrich leads the team with 18 home runs this season.

Cincinnati has put up a solid performance all around, while the Brewers have one of the best hitters in Christian Yelich. These two teams have exchanged some high scoring games this season and I would not be surprised to see another one of those on Monday night. Both teams will look to use their strengths to their advantage to go through the pitchers early.

Pitchers

Adrian Houser will get the start on the mound for Milwaukee on Monday night. Houser has put up a 2-2 record in three starts this season. He has an ERA of 2.94 and a WHIP of 1.337. Houser averages around 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last matchup against the Reds, he pitched one inning and allowed no hits.

The Reds will start Tyler Mahle on the mound for Monday night’s match. In fifteen starts this season, Mahle has a record of 2-8. He has an ERA of 4.35 and a WHIP of 1.222. Mahle’s last start came against the Los Angeles Angels, where he allowed six hits and four runs through five innings, taking his eighth loss on the season.

Houser does not play as a starter much, which I believe could leave to him leaving earlier in the game. Mahle has struggled this season, but at home, he has a record of 2-1. I believe that he could put up another solid performance against the Brewers. Milwaukee’s bullpen is around the middle of the league, which means Cincinnati could take advantage of it if Houser leaves early.

Pick Overview

The Reds are coming off a nice 2-1 series win against the Cubs, while Milwaukee has been in a bit of a slump as of late. I believe that Cincinnati could use this to their advantage as they look to get revenge for getting swept at home early in this season. I believe that Mahle will put up another strong performance on the mound at home to help lead them.

BetOnline has the Brewers listed as a -111 against the money line for this game. This implies that Milwaukee will win this game around 52.6 percent of the time. The Brewers have been the better team this season which makes this a reasonable spread, but I believe that the Reds have a lot of value as an underdog at home here.

My Pick
CINCINNATI REDS
Author Details
Andruw Burling

Andruw Burling has been writing sports picks since 2017, covering mainly NHL and NBA content, but doing work in other sports as well. Andruw grew up in Las Vegas and has been around sports since a young age. He grew up a huge NHL and NBA fan and continues to use that knowledge in his content today.

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