Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Pick – May 1st

The Milwaukee Brewers are in Cincinnati tonight for game two of a three-game series with the Reds. Milwaukee was the hottest team in the National League, having won eight straight games, before coming back to earth and getting swept in a four-game series in Chicago, against the Cubs in their last series. They picked up the win in game one last night against the Reds, 6-5 in a late-game rally.

The Brewers will start Chase Anderson (2-2 2.86 ERA), and the Reds will counter with Homer Bailey (0-3 4.19). The Brewers are -125 road favorites. The game total over-under is set at nine and a half runs. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 PM PST from Great American Ballpark in Milwaukee.

If you are looking for the major league’s worst team, you need not look any further than the Cincinnati Reds. They have the lowest win total (7) and have the most losses (22) of any team so far this season. It looked like maybe they were starting to get their act together as they won their last series against the Minnesota Twins, their first series win of the season. But then they lost last night’s game one against the Milwaukee Brewers, and in particularly painful fashion, as they blew a late lead. Tonight, they will start veteran arm, Homer Baily.

I always thought Homer was an odd name for a pitcher. He has lived up to his namesake so far this season though as he has given up multiple homers in his last two starts. Bailey is really struggling out of the gates this year and is 0-3 on the season. The Reds are 0-6 in games started by Bailey. There just isn’t a lot of good you can say about Bailey this year. He is walking a lot of guys, giving up lots of long balls, and teams are scoring on him at will. He has a couple of decent starts sprinkled in, by by and large there isn’t too much of a positive story when your team loses every single game you start.

The Brewers will look to take advantage of the soft matchup by sending their ace, Chase Anderson, to the mound. Anderson really came into his own last year as he had a breakout season. Anderson went 12-4 with a 2.74 ERA. This season has gotten off to a similar start as though six starts Anderson has an ERA of just 2.86. The Brewers are 4-2 in Andersons six starts this year. The one pain point for Anderson is the fact that he has given up seven home runs already on the year. Compare that to last year where he gave up just fourteen all season long.

This is a mismatch on paper. You have a solid Brewers team that should be competing for a division title all season long playing against a Reds teams that is already looking to next year. The Reds are starting their journeyman guy in Homer Bailey, and the Brewers are starting their young ace in the making in Anderson. That one pain point for Anderson, the fact that he is giving up a lot of home runs? That shouldn’t be a problem tonight as the Reds are 28th in the majors in home runs. I expect him to mow through these wet noodle bats in Cincinnati.

Clearly, the Brewers are the side to be on in this game. The only question here is, do we take the money line at -125? Or do we look to take the run line and lay the run and a half at +135? To me, this feels like an easy decision. The Reds run differential on the season is -45 runs. That is second worst in the National League. Not only are they losing a lot, but they are also getting blown out a lot.

When you look at the Brewers recent eight-game winning streak, they won by more than one run, thus covering the run line, in seven out of those eight wins. All signs point to laying the run and a half and going for the big payout. Many times, people will take the run line just because they don’t want to lay so much juice on the money line. That is absolutely the wrong way to approach a game. You only want to lay that run and a half if you have a strong feeling the game will be a blowout. Tonight, I have that strong feeling.

I get a great young pitcher, that is pitching very well at the moment, against a very weak Reds team. Smells like a blowout to me. And I love getting the extra sixty cents of juice in this one.

Give me the Milwaukee Brewers laying a run and a half on the run line at +135.

The Bet: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 runs at +135

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