Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Pick – September 21, 2020

Probable Starters:

    Brandon Woodruff (2-4, 3.45 ERA) vs. Luis Castillo (3-5, 3.03 ERA)

The Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds get started with the first of three games at the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati on Monday. It’s an important series, as is the case across the rest of the major leagues this week. There isn’t much time left to find a postseason spot with only a week left in the regular season. The Reds did their best on Sunday to bolster their chances.

They were 7-3 winners over the Chicago White Sox behind another fine performance by Michael Lorenzen. The offense took care of the rest, with Aristides Aquino the biggest performer on Sunday afternoon. Aquino put three runs up on the board with one swing of the stick. With the win, the Reds are 7-1 in his previous eight contests. The fight is far from over for the Reds, though.

Cincinnati heads into Monday evening with a record of 27-27 which puts them on the cusp of the postseason. The Brewers have played two fewer games than the Reds and sit at 26-26. As it currently stands, the Brewers are the first team out in the National League. However, they still have two games to make up and a three-game series against the Reds in front of them.

Note that the San Francisco Giants are also 26-26, so this is a big time series between the Brewers and Reds. The Philadelphia Phillies are at 27-26 and have a slight advantage on the Reds in the standings at the moment, but they’ve played one fewer game than Cincinnati. Because of all the postponements, there are some teams that are ahead of others going into the final week of the regular season.

The Reds are the hottest of the bunch right now and are playing like they want a wildcard. They fooled around too much early in the season and put themselves in this position, though. There’s enough talent on the Reds where they could have avoided having to fight for a wildcard in the last week. Luis Castillo will step on the hill tonight for the Reds, while Brandon Woodruff is expected to counter for the Brew Crew. Head below for our free Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds pick for September 21, 2020.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Betting Odds:

Spread:

  • Brewers +1.5 (-180)
  • Reds -1.5 (+160)
Moneyline:

  • Brewers (+116)
  • Reds (-126)
Total:

  • Over 7.5 (-110)
  • Under 7.5 (-110)

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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction:

The Brewers are coming off a successful weekend of their own. They swept the Kansas City Royals and are on a four-game winning streak going into tonight. Both teams have been playing quality baseball recently. The Brewers are fresh off a 5-3 win on Sunday afternoon. The onus will fall on Brandon Woodruff to keep things motoring along for the Brewers today. Woodruff isn’t a brand name, but he’s consistent and does what’s asked of him often.

He enters Cincinnati with an ERA of 3.45 and 1.07 WHIP. His stuff won’t blow you away, but the Brewers continue to receive nice production out of him. In his fourth season, Woodruff owns a career ERA of 3.78 and 1.16 WHIP. Following his rookie campaign, he’s posted an ERA of 3.61 and 3.62 the previous two seasons.

Woodruff is on pace to do slightly better than that in 2020. He goes into Cincinnati with a 3.60 ERA and 1.20 WHIP through five games on the road. The contact numbers for Woodruff versus the Reds has been nice. The Reds are hitting just .178 against Woodruff in 78 at-bats. However, they’ve also connected for 4 home runs and 10 RBI against him. Joey Votto is hitting .429 with 2 long balls against Woodruff in 14 at-bats.

Luis Castillo has been even better against the Brewers in his career. The Brewers are hitting .134 with 3 home runs in 97 at-bats. He’s won the battle against Christian Yelich in the past, as Yelich is hitting .214 with a home run against Castillo in 14 at-bats. Castillo has been sharp in particular at home, where he possesses an ERA of 2.25 and 1.08 WHIP across 24 innings.

Overall in his last three outings, he’s been on fire with only 3 earned runs allowed in 22 innings. Castillo is hot with a 1.23 ERA and 0.82 WHIP through that stretch. This should be a quality meeting with Woodruff and Castillo on the hill Monday night. I will give the edge to Castillo and the Reds at the Great American Ball Park in the first game of this important series.

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Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.