Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets Pick – MLB June 16, 2022

The Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets are at Citi Field for the final matchup of a three-game series in Queens.

The Brewers are coming off a 10-2 beatdown win over the Mets on Wednesday. Corbin Burnes wasn’t in perfect form, but he was good with 5 hits and 2 earned runs allowed through 6 innings.

Burnes wasn’t required to be that good, as the offense poured it on for 10 runs by the top of the 5th frame. Willy Adames, Luis Urias, and Jace Peterson all contributed with 2 RBIs each.

The Brewers are 35-29 and 1.5 games behind the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central. It’s a race between the Brewers and Cards, with the third-best team in the division 10.5 games behind the Cards.

That actually happens to be the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Bucs are 25-37, so that’s how bad the rest of the NL Central is this season.

The Mets are 41-23 and the best in the NL East over the Atlanta Braves by four games.

They’ve been ahead for the entire season, but the Braves are beginning to bridge the gap. Around a double-digit lead has turned into a four-game lead for the Mets.

The Mets went into this season without Jacob deGrom, and then more recently, Max Scherzer landed on the injured list. Scherzer has a sim game scheduled for Thursday while deGrom is pressing well in rehab.

Aaron Ashby and Tylor Megill are being called on to open the rubber match tonight at Citi Field. Head below for our free Brewers vs. Mets prediction on June 16, 2022.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets Live Betting Odds:

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:
Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 (-185) +115 Over 7 (-125)
NY Mets -1.5 (+160) -135 Under 7.5 (+105)
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4 Everygame

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Team Data Milwaukee Brewers NY Mets
Overall Record 34-29 41-22
Away/Home Record 19-17 20-8
Batting Average .228 .261
Batting Average Away/Home .224 .265
Runs Per 9 4.31 5.21
Team ERA 3.74 3.77
Team ERA Away/Home 4.06 3.11

Brewers vs. Mets Prediction:

The Brewers will ask Aaron Ashby to be better tonight after getting rocked horribly as of late. Ashby is coming off a tough spot at Washington, as he was touched up for 13 hits and 6 earned runs in 4.2 innings.

This was after Ashby couldn’t get out of harm’s way in a 4-0 loss to the Padres on June 4. He allowed 6 hits and 4 earned runs on June 4. It ended a rather nice run for Ashby, who was coming off two starts of just 1 earned run baseball.

Ashby is entering Citi Field with an ERA of 3.91 and a 1.44 WHIP. He’s primarily had issues on the road, where Ashby owns a 2.70 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.

In 38 innings on the road, Ashby boasts an ERA of 4.34 and a 1.58 WHIP. The second-year hurler must be careful not to put so many runners on the bases.

A team like the Mets can make a guy like Ashby pay for doing that too much. The Mets are the second-best team in the majors with 5.11 runs per 9 innings. They are hitting .263 to lead the major leagues.

Expect Ashby to have a better performance than he had in his most recent attempt. It’s not going to be that bad. He should bounce back to some extent.

That said, the Mets should look batter at the dish than they did in the 10-2 loss.

Tyler Megill is in the saddle for the Mets and coming off a shoddy start as well. Megill was tagged for 8 hits and 8 earned runs in 1.1 innings. Ouch.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets Betting Trends:

Brewers

  • Record (Last 10): 2-8
  • 1-4 overall in their previous five games versus a team with a winning record
  • 2-7 overall in their previous nine games versus the NL East
  • 1-4 overall in their previous five third game in a series
  • 1-4 overall in their previous five games at Queens
  • UNDER is 9-4 in their previous 13 games after a win

Mets

  • Record (Last 10): 6-4
  • 9-1 overall in their previous ten games at home
  • 21-5 overall in their previous 26 games after a loss
  • 4-1 overall in their previous five games versus the NL Central
  • 8-2 overall in their previous ten games versus a left-handed starter
  • 14-3 overall in their previous 17 games after scoring 2 or fewer runs

  • Despite getting roughed up in his last start, Megill has generally been reliable. His ERA was skewed to a 4.50 and a 1.18 WHIP following that game Megill quickly wants to forget.

    He’s liked pitching against the Brewers in the past.

    Milwaukee is hitting .119 with 4 hits in 21 at-bats against Megill in his career. With an ERA of 11.70 and a 2.10 WHIP in his previous three starts, the Brewers should get him going again.

    The Brewers are 25th in the majors with a team batting avearge of .231. Their power numbers are solid, but need to make better contact to get out of this 2-9 slump in their last 11 games.

    We should see better pitching from both sides in a contest between two starters looking to bounce back. The Mets as a team are looking to respond after a poor effort on Wednesday. I’m opting for the Mets to win their second of three games against the Brewers.

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Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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