Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Betting Pick – August 4

Following a thrilling encounter last night between NL Central rivals, Milwaukee and Pittsburgh, both teams will get right back at it early Thursday afternoon to kick-off a busy slate of action on the bases.

Pittsburgh won it by an 8-7 score in the bottom of the 9th yesterday night. Brian Reynolds homered off Deivin Williams, which was coincidentally his first earned run allowed in his previous 30 innings. Not a great first look just after trading closer Josh Hader, and with wins becoming more and more crucial in the wild-card race for the Brewers, these are losses they can ill-afford to drop.

The Pirates are on the outside looking in for the 2022 post-season, but their young talent continues to impress. Oneil Cruz has been elite since his call-up, both with power-hitting and great defense from the shortstop position.

However the Pirates will likely endure some troubles on Wednesday as right-hander Brandon Woodruff takes the mound. He’s been elite once again in 2022, and will look to him to get a victory from these pesky Pirates.

PITCHING PROBABLES: Brewers: Brandon Woodruff (9-3, 3.55 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 101 strikeouts); Pirates: Zach Thompson (3-8, 5.09 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 55 strikeouts)

Pittsburgh will counter with talented but erratic, Zach Thompson. The young thrower hasn’t quite figured it out yet at the major league level, and it might get harder on Wednesday against a motivated Milwaukee team badly needing a victory in this series.

Though these teams are decisively at opposite ends of the standings, there is still value to be had in Thursdayafternoon’s showdown. For added insight, the latest news, trends, and analysis, continue reading on beneath the posted odds for our breakdown and betting prediction for this hotly anticipated contest between these NL Central rivals. Enjoy the game, folks!

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Live Odds & Betting History

Betting odds provided by BOVADA

MONEYLINE -240 +220
RUN LINE -1.5 (-145) +1.5 (+125)
TOTAL Over 8 (-110) Under 8 (-110)
Overall Record 57-47 42-62
Over/Under/Push 54-45-7 44-54-6
Home/Away Record 31-27 23-29
Runs Per Game 4.7 3.6
Runs Allowed Per Game 4.3 5.1
Team Batting Average .243 .219
Bullpen ERA 4.00 4.45

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction:

Though the Pittsburgh Pirates are a ways away from a playoff push, their recent stretch indicates that this young group might not be that far off from meaningful contention in October. They’ve got undeniable young talent and have taken the first two games in this series from Milwaukee. That said, Thursday’s match-up should get pretty tough against Brewers’ star pitcher Brandon Woodruff.

He enters with a stellar 9-3 record, and a miniscule 1.14 WHIP on the season. Woodruff beats opposing batters in many ways, and against an inexperienced Pittsburgh lineup, look for Woodruff’s velocity and effective pitch-mixing to keep Pittsburgh off-balance throughout.

Woodruff has also been stellar recently, and dominated in July. In his past nine outings, he’s 6-1, and enters with a 1.02 WHIP and just over a 2.00 ERA. He has gotten hot at exactly the right time to lead his Brewers, and his excellent pitching metrics should again overwhelm the Pirates.

For Thompson, he enters looking to shake his battles with inconsistency. He has been particularly awful of late, struggling with control in particular. His 1.49 WHIP is an indicator that the Brewers could get a lot of baserunners on Thursday, and if they can get more timely hitting, a Brewers’ offensive explosion seems to await.

And while the Pirates have fared well recently at the plate, it’s tough to see that continuing. Woodruff is starting for one, and beyond that this Pittsburgh offense has really struggled with batting average and securing base-running opportunities. They enter Thursday afternoon 29th in MLB in batting average, and 27th in OPS.

Brewers vs. Pirates Trends To Know:

  • Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
  • Brewers are 6-2 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Brewers are 7-3 in their last 10 Thursday games.
  • Brewers are 7-3 in their last 10 overall.
  • Pirates are 2-5 in their last 7 home games.
  • Pirates are 2-7 in their last 9 games on grass.
  • Brewers are 13-6 in the last 19 meetings in Pittsburgh.

Though Milwaukee has lost the first two games of this series, expect urgency and history to take over on Thursday.  Look for the trends to play a key role, and with Woodruff on the bump this afternoon, Milwaukee should return to their decisive dominance over the lowly Pirates.  Backing the Brew Crew on the run-line seems to be a solid bet for Thursday’s slate opener.

Our Pick
Brewers -1.5
Will S. / Author

Will has been working with The Sports Geek since its early days back in 2010. He began as a soccer specialist, focusing on detailed reports for major international competitions, including the World Cup and European Championships. Since then, he has produced weekly pick articles on both the NFL and English Premier League, while also contributing blog posts on the NHL, MLB, and even WWE wrestling. Will is also an avid sports bettor and daily fantasy player, always eager to share his thoughts and insight on anything going on in the world of sports.

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