Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels MLB Pick – May 11th

How bad is Chris Tillman this year? Well, his team scored him eleven runs of support, and he still couldn’t book a win last night. I backed the Kansas City Royals last night on the understanding that Chris Tillman would get rocked and the Royals would dominate. Chris Tillman gave up six runs in just an inning and a third of work, and the Royals looked like they were going to blow out the Orioles as planned.

Then Royals starter Ian Kennedy decided to mess with our plans as he was even worse than Tillman. Kennedy pitched four innings and got hammered for nine runs, all earned, and the Royals got blown out despite scoring six runs in the first two innings. It sucks to lose a game where the team you back scores so many runs, so early, but what can you do this game turned into a slugfest, and we ended up holding the wrong end of the stick. For today’s pick I will look at the game between the Los Angeles Angels and the Minnesota Twins.

The Minnesota Twins are in Los Angeles Friday night for game two of a three-game series with the Angels. The Angels took game one last night 7-4 behind another Shohei Ohtani homerun and some solid work from the bullpen. With the win, the Angels overtook the Astros for first place in the American League West Division. Despite their losing record, the Twins are just a game and a half back of the Indians for the Central Division lead.

Starting tonight for LA is Tyler Skaggs (3-2 3.08 ERA), and for the Twins, it is Lance Lynn (1-3 7.28 ERA). The Angels are big -170 home favorites. The game total over-under is set at seven and a half runs. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 PM PST from Angel Stadium in Los Angeles.

If you read my daily picks, you may have picked up on a little trend. I like to bet against Lance Lynn this year. I have bet against him in just about every one of his six starts, and he has rarely let me down. The Twins were 0-5 in games Lynn started before he picked up a win in his last start. The guy just hasn’t been effective at all this year.

He has twenty-three walks in just twenty-nine and two-thirds of an inning of work. He has made it past the fifth inning just twice in his six starts and has given up five earned runs or more in four of those games. I am afraid of what this Angels high powered offense will do to Lynn today.

The Angels can hit. Period. They are leading the majors in home runs and are fourth in runs scored and third in batting average. This team has power and average up and down the lineup, and they are plowing through the competition. The AL East tends to get a lot of the hype with the Red Sox and Yankees leading the way, but it is the AL West that has the best combined record this year, and the Angels are in first place in what might be the best division in all of baseball.

Tyler Skaggs has been very solid this year. He had one bad outing against the Red Sox but besides that has been lights out. Skaggs has given up two runs or fewer in six of his seven starts this year, and the Angels have a winning record in games that he starts. Skaggs should enjoy the matchup with this noodle bat Twins team that is twenty-fourth in the bigs in runs scored this year.

This game has blowout written all over it. And you can see that reflected in the money line as it is a big one at Los Angeles -170. When I see a number that big I almost never really look that hard into the favorite as that is just too much to lay to be long-term profitable. But when I glanced at the run line, I was shocked to see such a huge premium.
We can get the Angels at +115 on the run line! That is a full eighty-five cents of juice. That is a huge bargain and much better than most run lines are going to offer. I liked the Angels to smash Lance Lynn anyway, and now I can take them on the run line getting dog money? That feels like I am stealing. So, that is what I will do tonight.

I’ll back the Angels at home, knowing I am getting the better team, and the better starter and expect fireworks as Lance Lynn won’t have anything for this mighty Angels offense. Give me the Los Angeles Angels laying a run and a half at +115 tonight in game two!

The Bet: Los Angeles Angels -1.5 runs at +115


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.