Twins vs. Mariners MLB Betting Odds and Pick for June 13th

OUR PICK

TWINS

We have a relatively small 10-game Major League Baseball slate scheduled for Monday evening. The vast majority of the contests are divisional matchups, but the latest game of the night will pit a pair of American League playoff hopefuls against one another out west.

The Minnesota Twins, who are currently atop the AL Central, will head to the Pacific Northwest to begin a midweek series against the Seattle Mariners.

The Twins enter Monday’s action three games in front of the Cleveland Guardians in the Central. The Mariners, meanwhile, are in fourth in the AL West, a whopping 10 games adrift of the division-leading Houston Astros.

Oddsmakers at Bovada have Monday’s game as a virtual toss-up. Both teams check in at -110 on the moneyline in a game with an over/under of 8.5 runs.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins came into the season as one of the biggest question marks in the American League. Minnesota was a relative disappointment a season ago, as they failed to make the playoffs with a 73-89 record.

However, the Twins were one of the most active teams of all this past offseason. The shocking signing of star shortstop Carlos Correa was the biggest move, but Minnesota also added Gary Sanchez, Sonny Gray, Dylan Bundy, Gio Urshela, and Chris Paddack, among others.

So far, those moves have paid off nicely. Minnesota’s 35-27 record is the third-best in the AL behind only the Yankees and Astros. Minnesota’s plus-25 run differential trails Cleveland’s plus-33 mark among Central sides, however.

Chris Archer is slated to take the ball for the Twins tonight in Seattle. The veteran right-hander has dealt with injuries in recent years, and this is his first season with the Twins. He’s 1-2 with a 3.65 ERA through his first 11 starts of the campaign, but his underlying numbers are rather underwhelming.

Archer’s 5.01 SIERA indicates his 3.65 ERA is rather lucky. He has benefited from a strangely low .248 BABIP allowed while stranding 76 percent of runners that have reached base against him has helped him keep his ERA in check.

Archer has also been on a short leash for most of the year. The 33-year-old has pitched a season-high five innings in back-to-back starts, but he still hasn’t cracked 80 pitches in a single game so far this year. He did allow just one run on two hits in five innings against the mighty Yankees in his most recent outing, however.

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners were another team that tried to win the offseason. GM Jerry DiPoto has a well-earned reputation as one of baseball’s most aggressive executives, and he has been desperately trying to mold the Mariners into a winner in recent years. Seattle is still in search of its first postseason appearance since 2001, which is the longest active drought of any team in the sport.

Despite a hot start, the Mariners have fallen on hard times of late. The 27-33 Mariners are fourth in the AL West behind Houston, Texas, and Los Angeles. The gap is now big enough to where Seattle may have to look to qualify for the playoffs via a Wild Card berth. Even that will be a tall task, however, given how many contenders are vying for those three spots as of now.

Seattle lost two of their three games over the weekend at home against the Red Sox, and things won’t get any easier for them with the Twins coming to town. In Monday’s game, manager Scott Servais will turn to right-hander Chris Flexen, who has had issues replicating the success he enjoyed last year in his first year with the M’s.

Flexen, who returned to the majors in 2021 after a successful stint in Korea, is just 2-7 with a 4.35 ERA through his first 11 starts of the new season. Last year, the 27-year-old finished a solid 14-6 with a tidy 3.61 ERA in 31 games.

However, it’s fair to suggest Flexen enjoyed some favorable luck a season ago. That luck has taken a turn for the worse this time around. Flexen’s 15.8 percent strikeout rate ranks among the lowest in the league among regular starters, while his barrel rate north of 10 percent is on the high side. Additionally, Flexen’s 4.93 SIERA so far in ’22 suggests his aforementioned 4.35 ERA might still be due for even more regression as the season progresses.

Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners MLB Game Pick

Oddsmakers think this will be a pretty evenly-matched contest. Both pitchers are average, at best, though I do think Archer has more left in the tank than Flexen does.

Please Note:

The Twins’ improved play of late can be attributed to the recent offensive surge of Byron Buxton. The Twins’ superstar outfielder had been slumping for the last month before a breakout showing over the last two weeks. Through nine games in June, Buxton is slashing an impressive .344/.432/.486 with six homers and nine runs batted in.

Flexen has a wide reverse platoon split, which means he tends to struggle more against right-handed hitters. Between Buxton, Correa, Sanchez, and Urshela, he’ll have to navigate quite a gauntlet of power righties in this one.

I just don’t see Flexen faring well against this lineup, which makes the Twins look a bit undervalued by oddsmakers are their -110 moneyline odds. Take Minnesota to claim the first game of this series on Monday night.

Pick:

Twins

-110

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