Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox MLB Pick – September 14, 2020

Probable Starters:

    Jose Berrios (4-3, 4.40 ERA) vs. Dylan Cease (5-2, 3.33 ERA)

A very important divisional battle in the American League Central starts on Monday night at Guaranteed Rate Field. The Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox meet for four games in Chicago. This series might go down to decide who wins the AL Central. The White Sox are currently up a game on the Twins for the lead.

The Indians are quietly falling out of favor in the division. Suddenly the Indians are trailing by 4.5 games. All three teams were neck and neck just a week ago, but the Indians have not been keeping up with the White Sox and Twins recently.

The White Sox are coming off a sweep of the Detroit Tigers over the weekend. They got behind against a red-hot Casey Mize on Friday and erased the deficit for a 4-3 win. That turned into easier wins on Saturday and Sunday in favor of the White Sox. Their last three series were against the Royals, Pirates, and Tigers. None of those teams are going to be playing in October.

The White Sox will finally be tested for the first time since a 8-2 loss against the Twins on September 2. The Twins won two out of three games in that series. Since then, the White Sox won six out of seven games, so they did what they had to do against an inferior opponent. Too many times teams lose the winnable games and it adds up by the end of the season.

The White Sox avoided that over the last two weeks. Now it’s back to playing big boy baseball in their most important series of the year so far. If the White Sox excel over the next four games, they are going to begin to put some separation between themselves and the Twins. Conversely, the Twins have a chance to take the lead in the AL Central.

We have a pretty good pitching matchup between Jose Berrios and Dylan Cease to get this series started on Monday. Berrios’ overall numbers have been average, but he could flick a switch and get hot. Cease has been solid throughout the season after struggling as a rookie last year. Head below for our free Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox pick for September 14, 2020.

Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox MLB Betting Odds:

Spread:

  • Twins -1.5 (+115)
  • White Sox +1.5 (-135)
Moneyline:

  • Twins (-127)
  • White Sox (+117)
Total:

  • Over 9 (-120)
  • Under 9 (+100)

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Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox Prediction:

It’s imperative that Jose Berrios gets hot down the stretch for the Twins. If they want to win the AL Central, Berrios must hit his stride and reach his full potential. As it is going into Monday, Berrios is on pace for his worst season since his rookie campaign in 2016. Berrios was rocked for a 8.02 ERA that season, but it was an important learning lesson.

In the following three years, Berrios kept his ERA below 4.00 from 2017 to 2019. He notched a career-high with an ERA of 3.68 last season. Berrios is currently in danger of finishing with an ERA above 4.00, though it is a shortened season for him and everybody else. That said, Berrios hasn’t been nearly as sharp as we’ve seen in the past.

Berrios has allowed at least 3 earned runs in four of his previous six performances. He’s coming off a mediocre showing versus the St. Louis Cardinals in a 7-3 win on September 8. Berrios conceded 4 hits, 2 walks, and 3 earned runs through 5 innings of work. His primary problem has been finding a way to settle in on the road.

In 20 innings on the road, Berrios has been miserable with an ERA of 6.75 and 1.80 WHIP. Teams are reaching base at a clip of .387 against Berrios when they’re home. Power numbers have been more than fine for the White Sox against Berrios. They’ve recorded 11 home runs and 38 RBI against Berrios in 258 at-bats.

The Twins don’t have as much of a sample size versus Cease, but they’ve made the most of it. Cease has gotten ripped for a .406 batting average with 2 home runs and 10 RBI across 27 at-bats. Cease has a strong ERA at home with a 1.72, though he’s had to work hard for it to get himself out of trouble.

Despite an ERA of 1.72, Cease has posted a 1.40 WHIP and .348 OBA, so hitters are reaching base. And with only 15.2 innings of work at home, it hasn’t been much of a sample size. Cease has conceded 9 earned runs in his last 10 innings on the bump, and that was against poor offenses in the Pirates and Royals. Runners are beginning to find their way home versus Cease. This should be a fun game and fun series. There should be just enough runs in the series opener to put this one OVER the total.

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The Bet
OVER 9
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.