Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians Game 1 MLB Betting Pick – June 28

Following a huge dismantling of the hometown Guardians last night, the red-hot Minnesota Twins will look to extend their lead in the AL Central in Game 1 of double-header action on Tuesday.

Last night, Minnesota rode a hot offense by a score of 11-1 over Cleveland. The Twins are playing their best baseball of the season right now, and the 42-33 Twins will be seeking a fourth straight victory come Tuesday afternoon.

Cleveland is trending in the opposite direction, losers of five straight contests. Their pitching staff has faltered of late, while their offense is not providing much support with the bats. In fact, they have lost their previous two games by a combined score of 19-4, and it’ll be up to Zach Plesac (2-5, 4.17 ERA) to try and turn this around in the first of two games on Tuesday.

Countering on the bump for the Twins will be dynamic youngster, Devin Smeltzer. He enters with a 4-1 record, boasting a 3.05 ERA, and has been quite good of late. The 26-year old lefty is getting ahead of hitters, and limiting his walks, a good omen for continued success.

Both of these teams are firmly ones to watch as we approach the mid-season mark of another thrilling MLB season. Can the Guardians get some positive traction and re-enter the playoff race? Or will the Twins continue to use their hot offense to solidify their divisional lead? Continue reading on beneath the odds, data, and trends for our official betting pick on the Twins vs. Guardians in the first of two Tuesday encounters!

Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians Game 1 Live Odds & Betting History

Betting odds provided by BOVADA

  • Minnesota Twins         +1.5 (-175)
  • Cleveland Guardians   -1.5 (+155)
  • Minnesota Twins (+100)
  • Cleveland Guardians (-115)
  • Over 8.5 (-110)
  • Under 8.5 (-110)
Overall Record 42-33 36-33
Over/Under/Push 35-35-5 34-30-5
Home/Away Record 19-16 16-14
Runs Per Game 4.5 4.5
Runs Allowed Per Game 4.0 4.2
Team Batting Average .252 .249
Bullpen ERA 3.80 3.33

Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians Game 1 Prediction:

Despite a down week from the Guardians, and a throttling by these same Twins just a few hours ago, there are some good reasons to like the Guardians to bounce back to kick-off the double-header.

Despite the fact that Minnesota’s Smeltzer has had a stellar season to date, there are some signs showing of the youngster fading in his first prolonged stretch in MLB. Over his past three outings, Smeltzer has stumbled with a 4.96 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. He’s walking more batters than he was at any other point in the season, and with the speed the Guardians’ boast on the basepaths, that could spell trouble.


Zach Plesac will counter to open up the double-header for Cleveland, and he is trending in a favorable direction of late. In his four starts in the month of June, Plesac is showing the Guardians that he still possesses the potential to be a top-of-the-rotation guy. He has a 2.6 ERA in 24 innings, with a 22-4 strikeout to walk ratio! He has also historically mowed this Twins’ lineup down, allowing just a .216 batting average against their hitters during his career.

Look for the Cleveland offense to help Plesac with some solid support on Tuesday afternoon. Smeltzer has been much worse away from home, and their offensive profile should give the left-hander fits. The Guardians have the fewest strikeouts in baseball, and with the power of Jose Ramirez, and arguably the speediest team in the league – Cleveland should frustrate an unproven Smeltzer on Tuesday.

Twins vs. Guardians Trends To Know:

  • Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
  • Twins are 3-12 in their last 15 games following a win.
  • Twins are 0-4 in their last 4 Tuesday games.
  • Guardians are 4-1 in their last 5 Tuesday games.
  • Guardians are 5-2 in their last 7 home games vs. a left-handed starter.

Look for Plesac to cool down the red-hot bats of the Twins, and keep them off-balance across a quality start.  Devin Smeltzer is fading and should struggle on the road against a Cleveland team that puts up pesky at-bats.  As narrow favorites, look for Cleveland to bounce back in a big way here in Game 1 of the double-header.

Our Pick
Will S. / Author

Will has been working with The Sports Geek since its early days back in 2010. He began as a soccer specialist, focusing on detailed reports for major international competitions, including the World Cup and European Championships. Since then, he has produced weekly pick articles on both the NFL and English Premier League, while also contributing blog posts on the NHL, MLB, and even WWE wrestling. Will is also an avid sports bettor and daily fantasy player, always eager to share his thoughts and insight on anything going on in the world of sports.

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