Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres Pick – MLB July 31, 2022

The Minnesota Twins and San Diego Padres have a rubber match at Petco Park on Sunday afternoon. The Padres opened with an impressive 10-1 win on Friday, but this wasn’t the case on Saturday. It’s their first loss in the City Connect uniforms after winning six in a row.

The Twins took a 7-1 lead into the 9th inning after a big 8th and held on for a 7-4 victory. Sonny Gray was in strong form, with 5 hits and 1 earned run allowed through 5 innings. Joe Musgrove wasn’t that bad, either, with 4 hits and 2 earned runs allowed.

The game was won when the Padres bullpen collapsed and the Twins held strong. Adrian Morejon allowed 3 hits and 4 earned runs in 0.1 innings give the game away, while the Minnesota bullpen didn’t give up a run.

The Padres have to treat the rest of their season as must-win games. They’re in a wildcard race that could go down to the final days of the regular season.

San Diego is 56-46 and currently in the postseason as a wildcard team.

There isn’t much breathing room, though. They have a 1.5-game advantage on the first team out in the National League. It should be a tight finish at the wire.

The Twins are leading the AL Central, but it isn’t because they are an amazing club. The AL Central has been bad this season, with the Twins leading by two games in the division at 53-47.

They’re lucky to be in the AL Central and not the NL West like the Padres. San Diego trails the Dodgers by 12 games and they have a better record than the Twins. Fernando Tatis Jr. recently started taking BP, so they hope to have him back in the lineup at some point soon for a postseason push.

Head below for our free Twins vs. Padres prediction on July 31, 2022.

Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres Live Betting Odds:

MLB Odds Courtesy of Bovada:
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Minnesota Twins +1.5 (-160) +130 Over 8 (-105)
San Diego Padres -1.5 (+135) -155 Under 8 (-115)
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Team Data Minnesota Twins San Diego Padres
Overall Record 53-47 56-46
Away/Home Record 26-25 26-22
Batting Average .249 .237
Batting Average Away/Home .252 .222
Runs Per 9 4.65 4.41
Team ERA 4.06 3.78
Team ERA Away/Home 4.33 3.46

Twins vs. Padres Prediction:

The Twins will look to get the most out of Dylan Bundy in this start. Bundy hasn’t been at his best and is searching for what happened to his 2020 form. It took a shortened season for Bundy to pitch well.

Bundy posted an ERA of 3.29 and a 1.04 WHIP in 11 starts.

A 60-game schedule doesn’t count for much, but that’s Bundy’s career-high. Through a full season, Bundy recorded a career-high ERA of 4.02 in his rookie campaign in 2016. Since then, he’s been wildly inconsistent.

Following his solid Covid-19 season, there was hype for Bundy with the Angels last season. He was finally living up to expectations and everything would go well in 2021. Not the case.

Not the case at all, as Bundy notched a 6.06 ERA and 1.36 WHIP through 23 outings. He’s doing better, though that’s not saying much.

Bundy is going into Petco with a 5.02 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.

In his previous three starts, Bundy had a 7.53 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. He’s coming off a rough performance, with 7 hits and 5 earned runs allowed to the Brewers.

Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres Betting Trends:


  • Record (Last 10): 4-6
  • 1-4 overall in their previous five games versus the National League
  • 6-20 overall in their previous 26 games after a win
  • 0-4 overall in their previous four games versus a left-handed starter
  • 1-5 overall in their previous six games on the road versus a team with a winning record
  • OVER is 4-0 in their previous four games after a win


  • Record (Last 10): 5-5
  • 4-1 overall in their previous five games after a loss
  • 6-2 overall in their previous eight games versus a team with a winning record
  • 8-3 overall in their previous 11 games versus an American League team at home with a winning record
  • OVER is 5-0-1 in their previous six games
  • OVER is 6-1 in their previous seven games after a loss

  • Sean Manaea has been good in spots this season. It’s not a ringing endorsement of Manaea, but he’s been stead enough on the mound. He’s more consistent and predictable than Bundy.

    Manaea owns an ERA of 4.33 and a 1.28 WHIP through 18 starts.

    In 62 at-bats, he hasn’t given up a home run to the Twins, so that is good news. The Twins are hitting .256 with 4 RBIs against Manaea. He likely has the advantage over Bundy in the series finale on Sunday.

    Look for the Padres to prevail late in this one, as they win two of three games and move on to a big series against the Rockies at home on Monday.


    Twins vs. Padres Pick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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