How about those Cleveland Indians? The held off a ninth inning Detroit rally to win their thirteenth straight home game and race out to the best record in the majors at 19-8. It’s been a few years since there was any excitement at old Jacobs Field. For a city that has suffered more as a sports town than any other the past three years, it is nice to see the Tribe off to such an incredible start.
In the National League, it is no surprise to see the Phillies off and racing with an 18-9 record, but what is a little surprising is to see the Florida Marlins just a half-game behind. The Fish took two of three this weekend in Cincinnati to keep pace with the Phillies in what is shaping up to be one of the more interesting division races at the top.
We took the weekend off, but are looking to pick up where we left off Thursday – red hot picking winners – so let’s dive right into it with Monday’s picks.
Computer based betting system was 3-1 yesterday… Click here to get it :)
Today’s Free Major League Baseball Picks:
Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds -180 (Total: 8.5)
J.A. Happ (1-4, 6.35 ERA) v. Mike Leake (3-0, 4.40 ERA)
The Reds have been struggling the last two weeks, and it hasn’t been one glaring weakness that has done them in; the pitching has been decent, the hitting has been decent…but neither has been exceptional. One place the Reds are clearly struggling is in missing injured third baseman Scott Rolen. It isn’t just his bat or his Gold glove; it’s everything else he brings to the table in terms of quality at-bats, solid leadership and presence in general.
Tonight they try to right the ship at home against a struggling pitcher in J.A. Happ. The Reds have taken 12 of their last 18 from the Astros, completely reversing the struggles they had with Houston in 2007-2008. Add in the fact that the ‘Stros are putting a pitcher with an ERA over 6, and you can see why the line is pretty fat in Cincy’s favor.
The only way to get good value tonight is to lay the -1.5 on the Reds and beef the line up to +115. Given the way the Reds score runs in this ballpark, it seems like a pretty solid wager tonight.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Atlanta Braves -140 (Total: 7.5)
Yovani Gallardo (2-1, 5.71 ERA) vs. Jair Jurgens (2-0, 1.23 ERA)
Don’t let Gallardo’s inflated early-season ERA fool you, tonight is an absolute pitching matchup delight. Jair Jurgens is off to a Cy-Young caliber start in the early season, posting a microscopic 1.23 ERA and an even more impressive WHIP of just 1.05.
However, despite the immense talent Gallardo showed several weeks ago in his complete game victory over these same Braves, his starts since have been a little rocky. He got roughed up in his last outing, and might be actually looking forward to facing off against the Bravos tonight. In his career, Gallardo is 3-0 with a 0.96 ERA against Atlanta, who has been scuffling a little bit at the plate over the past two weeks.
I like Milwaukee getting the nice fat line tonight, as betters run scared from the hot start of Jair Jurgens. Over the last ten games, Milwaukee is hitting .279 while Atlanta has mustered just a .220 average. Take the hot bats of Milwaukee (despite getting 3-hit yesterday) and enjoy the cozy +125 line.