After a nice 2-0 day (3-0 if you took the Brewers on the runline as well), let’s dig back in for two more free picks and a few more winners.
TODAY’S FREE MLB PICKS:
Minnesota Twins +230 @ Detroit Tigers -250
N. Blackburn (7-9, 4.36) vs. J. Verlander (17-5, 2.35)
Look, I get it; picking Justin Verlander to win a baseball game isn’t really the boldest of moves. However, sometimes valor isn’t the easiest way to rack up a few winners. So let’s take a look at some of the trends to find out exactly where the smart value wager lies tonight.
Verlander is 3-0 in his last three starts with a 0.73 WHIP… and those starts actually raised his season ERA to 2.35. Yeah, he’s been that dominant. The Tigers in general have been equally dominant over the Twins. Detroit is 12-2 over their last 14 games versus Minnesota.
For the Twins, Nick Blackburn has struggled of late, going 0-2 in his last three starts with a 5.55 ERA and a 2.20 WHIP. That’s not real pretty. Add the two up, and it looks like a pretty clear and esy winner for Detroit tonight. Of course, that is reflected in the -250 line for the Tigers. Obviously, we need to get a little lower to find some value, so my play is Detroit -1.5 on the runline.
Of Detroit’s last 12 wins over Minnesota, 9 of them have been by more than one run. And most of them weren’t featuring Justin Verlander on the hill. Take the gift tonight and rest easy backing one of the more automatic things going in sports right now.
Los Angeles Dodgers +160 @ Milwaukee Brewers -170
C. Billingsley (10-9, 4.17) vs. Y. Gallardo (13-8, 3.67)
Until something changes, it’s hard to stay off the Milwaukee Brewer Express. Last night the Brew Crew continued their incredible hot play, and more impressively their incredible hot pitching, shutting down the Dodgers 3-0. It was Milwaukee’s 17th win in 19 games, and ran their major league-best home record to 45-15. Tonight, they throw their ace on the hill to keep the magic going.
Milwaukee has now won 8 of 10 by MORE than a run, making their profit average on the runline the staggering best bet in sports over the past month. Tonight, the regular line to win is still pretty respectable; -165. To be able to get the Brewers on the runline at plus-money (+130) is a surprising, yet enticing, possibility.
In Gallardo’s last 13 home starts, the Brewer Ace is 10-1 with a 1.76 ERA. That’s about as good as anyone in baseball over that stretch – putting him in the company of Roy Halliday, Justin Verlander, CC Sabathia, Jared Weaver; on par with any of the games’ elite.
Billingsly has had some struggles of late, alternating wins and losses in his last seven starts. In his previous five outings, Chad has given up five or more runs in each of them. Facing a red-hot Brewer lineup may not be the best recipe to remedy that. I’m taking the Brewers to win as my official pick tonight, but also love the -1.5 runline at +130.