Two more wins last night runs our record to 12-4 over our last 16 baseball picks. There is a couple of lines that leapt out to me this morning as we attempt to keep it rolling with two more winners tonight.
TODAY’S MLB PICKS:
Chicago Cubs +130 @ San Francisco Giants -140 (Total: 6.5)
M. Garza (6-10, 3.68) vs. R. Vogelsong (10-4, 2.54)
It’s getting late early out in San Francisco. After ace Tim Lincecum was routinely dismissed last night by the Chicago Cubs (and the Giants were shutout to boot), they find themselves five games behind division leading Arizona as the calendar turns to September.
That makes every game a big game, especially home games they should win. Like tonight. Vogelsong, who for a considerable period of time was leading the league in ERA, has cooled off a bit, but hs still been very effective. He is just 1-2 over his last three starts, but with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP, he deserved a better fate.
The Giants, like the Cubs, have only won 4 of their last 10 games, but Chicago has taken three straight over the boys from the Bay. Tonight, they send their best pitcher to the mound in Matt Garza. Garza struggled mightily early in his transition to the National League, but has been solid of late, posting a 2.68 ERA in his three recent starts. However, despite Garza’s improvement, the Cubs are just 2-5 in his last seven starts (and all seven as the underdog).
I like the Giants at home holding the Cubs offense in check and being able to scratch out just enough runs to win a low scoring game. I’m not quite brave enough to touch the UNDER 6.5 tonight, but I do like the Giants to WIN.
New York Yankees -155 @ Boston Red Sox +140 (TOTAL: 9.5)
C. Sabathia (17-7, 2.99) vs. J. Lackey (12-9, 5.98)
Here we go again. For seemingly the hundredth time this past ten years, the Yankees and Sox are slugging it out in September to determine the AL East crown. The virtual assurance of the runner-ups wildcard spot in the playoffs takes a little shine off the importance of this series, but winning the division definitely matters to the players and the fans.
The Yankees send ace and Cy Young contender CC Sabathia to the hill in hopes to snatch the first game of the series on the road. In order for that to happen CC will have to be much sharper than he has been the past few weeks. Sabathia is just 1-2 in his last three starts with an ERA approaching five (4.43). If the Sox are hitting today, this could be one wild ballgame that lasts ‘till near midnight, because the Sox are throwing John Lackey, whose ERA is right at six!
Lackey has struggled most of the season, and his last three starts are no exception. Despite the 1-2 record, his ERA has hovered over 5, and his WHIP is 1.60. The way this Yankee lineup has been lighting up the scoreboard with double-digit numbers, today’s run total of 9.5 doesn’t seem nearly high enough.
I like today to be a nice slugfest, and for the OVER to be hit before the 6th inning. You can try to pick a winner if you’d like; the Sox are a decent value at home against a scuffling CC Sabathia at +140, but I feel more comfortable with the run total hitting double digits, and am making the OVER my official play.