MLB Picks for July 27th – Mets Reds, Twins Rangers

Monday might have technically been a 1-1, .500 day of picks, but for those of you who appreciate the value picks inside the complexity of baseball wagering; Monday was a still a nice profitable day with the Pirates winning at +180. With odds like that, it doesn’t take a perfect record to go smiling to the payout line.

Let’s see if we can keep it going today with two more good picks.


New York Mets +115 @ Cincinnati Reds-125 (Total: 9.5)
M. Pelfrey (5-9, 4.73) vs. B. Arroyo (7-8, 5.56)

Bronson Arroyo leads all of MLB in the dubious statistic of “homeruns allowed” with a whopping five more than any other pitcher on the planet. Even in Great American “Smallpark” that is a pretty impressive number. The Mets aren’t noted for tremendous power but they do have a few guys who can park a few in the bleachers with Wright, Reyes, Bay, Beltran and Murphy.

Cincinnati has lost back to back two-run games to New York; both games in which they had a lead in the 6th inning or later. Bullpen issues weren’t thought to be a major concern heading into the season, but Nick Masset has been bringing a gas can out to the mound more often that not over the first half of this season.

For the Mets, Pelfrey has struggled mightily this season, with an ERA hovering up near the five-run mark. Add his recent three starts WHIP of 1.53 and ERA of 5.31 to Arroyo’s consistent run allowing bonanza, and we could be in for a long, hot night in the Queen City.

I like the ball flying out of the yard tonight and a lot of run being scored. The 9.5 run total looks high from a distance, but might not even be close. I’ll take the OVER tonight, and like my odds of smiling by the sixth inning.


Minnesota Twins +205 @ Texas Rangers -175 (TOTAL: 9.5)
B. Duensing (7-8, 4.53) vs. C. Lewis (10-7, 3.93)

Speaking of runs piling up on the board, the Rangers have been doing it with more aplomb than any team in the bigs the past week. Hamilton and Company appear to be all healthy and clicking on all cylinders. That could equal a tough night for Duensing and the Twinkies.

Nelson Cruz has been a man possessed, hitting .600 with 12 RBIs in his last six games. Did I mention the Rangers are 6-0 in that stretch? Not too surprising. Colby Lewis has been excellent on the hill of late as well, posting a 2.22 ERA over his last five starts, none of them defeats.

Tonight is a night where everything points to a big Rangers win, but I really don’t like the value prop in a -205 wager. If you’d like to back the scorching Rangers tonight, I’d recommend taking the -1.5 runline and getting the juice down to a manageable even-money +100. As a matter of fact, I LOVE that wager, and will likely head there.

For my official pick though, the TOTAL OVER 9.5 feels like a no-brainer. Heck, the Rangers might get it themselves the way those bats are mashing this week. Heck, Nelson Cruz might do it himself… ok, the last one is hyperbole, but not too much.


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Chris Scheeren / Author