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MLB Picks for May 19th – Cubs Marlins, Tigers Red Sox

Chicago Cubs +145 @ Florida Marlins -165 * Total: 9 (-105)
Casey Coleman (1-2, 7.22 ERA) v. Chris Volstad (2-2, 5.77 ERA)

The Cubs aren’t just losing games; they are giving them away. They played what could be the ugliest game in all of MLB this season Tuesday night, losing 7-5 to the Reds in a game in which all seven runs were unearned, courtesy of four errors.

Tonight they travel to Florida to face the Marlins in a matchup of two struggling pitchers. The runline total tonight is 9, and it looks like a gift. The Cubs are 6-1-1 going OVER in their last eight games. Even when they DO have good pitching on the mound, they still find a way to allow some runs across the plate.

For the Marlins, you have to also like their chances earning a few of those runs against Casey Coleman and his enormous 7.22 ERA. Not that Chris Volstad has been too much better. Volstad has great stuff, but it hasn’t translated into much success so far in 2011. The young righty has an ERA of 6.35 in his last three starts, with an equally troubling 1.59 WHIP.

Tonight seems like a clear chance to get a favorable line with the OVER. I like the Marlins to win, but love the total creeping into double-digits tonight for an easy cover.

FREE PICK: Total OVER 9 (-105)

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Detroit Tigers +125 @ Boston Red Sox -135 * Total: 7 (-105)
Justin Verlander (4-3, 2.91 ERA) v. Josh Beckett (3-1, 1.75 ERA)

It doesn’t get to much better than Justin Verlander and Josh Becket facing off in Fenway Park. Verlander has garnered more attention, with his no-hitter and huge strikeout totals, but it has actually been Josh Beckett who is pitching more like the AL All-Star starter. Beckett is sporting a sub-2.00 ERA and a WHIP of 0.79 – which is unthinkably good, especially in the American League.

Beckett hasn’t allowed a run in his last three starts, and in more than 20 innings overall. Verlander has a WHIP of 0.59 in his last three starts (obviously aided by the no-no two weeks ago, but still, awesome).

So much in the same way the above game screamed “OVER”, this one is screaming UNDER. Take the under and enjoy a spectacular 2-1 treat of a ballgame tonight.

FREE PICK: Run Total UNDER 7 (-105)