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Nationals at Blue Jays – Free Pick June 11th

Washington Nationals +149 at Toronto Blue Jays -159 (Total: 8)

Edwin Jackson (2-3, 3.11 ERA) vs. Brandon Morrow (7-3, 2.90 ERA)

One pitcher is has seven wins and is on a four game winning streak.  The other has just two wins on the season and has a losing record.  Mismatch, right?  Until you look a little deeper in the numbers and see that the two pitchers are separated by just 0.21 in ERA and have nearly identical statistics.

The big difference, obviously, has been the lack of run support “enjoyed” by Edwin Jackson.  He is getting an average of under two runs per start, but has certainly held up his end of the bargain on the mound.  Opponents are hitting just .212 against him and he has lasted at least 6 2/3 innings in each of his last four starts.  In fact, on the season his WHIP of just 1.02 is one of the best in all of the National League.  The guy deserves much better than the 2-3 record he is saddled with.

For the home Jays, Brandon Morrow has been absolutely on fire of late.  He is coming off an impressive complete game shutout of the Chicago White Sox, and has allowed one or less runs in three of his last four starts.  His WHIP on the season is 0.99 and opponents are hitting a miniscule .191 against him on the season.  However if you look at his numbers in his last three starts, the one poor outing weighs down the numbers pretty heavily (3.94 ERA, 1.12 WHIP).

This game has “low scoring affair” written all over it; in fact one of my two wagers on this game is the UNDER 8 total.  However, I also like the value of the Nats at +149.  They are fresh off a three game sweep in Fenway, and are not at nearly the pitching disadvantage that the starters won/loss records would suggest.   This is a pretty even matchup, and if I can get +149 money in an even matchup, I’m pretty happy with the opportunity.

The Nats have played well in interleague play, winning their last four and are 5-1 in their last six games overall.  They have also fared well in low-scoring affairs.  They are 26-11 in their last 37 games in which the run total was set between 7 and 8 runs.  It indicates tonight is exactly their style of ballgame, a low scoring 3-2, 2-1-type contest.

I think tonight is a complete toss-up, but love the VALUE pick of the Nats at +149, and of course, the UNDER 8 total.

Free Pick(s):  Washington National to WIN +149, Run TOTAL UNDER 8