All good things must come to an end I guess they say. After firing off eight straight winning picks, it came to an end last night at the ends of none other than the…Houston Astros and Erik Bedard? Geez, what a way to end a good thing there Astros. Conversely, that was the first non-total I have bet in quite some time. All eighteen wins out of my 18-4-2 run were off totals, so I’m looking to get back to what my forte is. I didn’t like anything on the board in terms of totals yesterday, but one does stick out to me for tonight.
Free MLB Pick:
Washington Nationals +115 at Baltimore Orioles -135 (Total: 9.5)
Dan Haren (4-5, 5.43 ERA) vs. Freddy Garcia (1-2, 4.61 ERA)
The Baltimore Orioles have quietly asserted themselves as a quality team in baseball. They don’t get the recognition in the media as a good team, but nevertheless, they have a dangerous lineup from top to bottom. They aren’t a better team because pitching is severely held them back. They don’t have that one ace that can take over a game. As gamblers, though, that’s alright. The Orioles present numerous situations where betting the OVER is a solid option due to this notion.
The Orioles’ high powered offense will have the opportunity to tee off on Dan Haren tonight. This isn’t 2010 Haren, this is a Haren that is beginning to grow old and weary. The former Angels and Diamomdbacks’ star is currently having his worst season as a pro, posting a 5.43 ERA. In his last three games he has tossed a lackluster 6.00 ERA. The Orioles have been mashing the ball with great regularity of late. In fact, the OVER is 11-2-1 in their last fourteen games. On the year the Orioles are 31-19 to the OVER as well. In addition, the Orioles love to feast off of righties, with an excellent .283 BA against them. Haren is of course a righty.
Not to be out done, the Nationals will have the opportunity to get their runs in as well. Garcia is another one of those pitchers that has seen better days. I actually cannot explain how he is still pitching. He entered the league in 1999 as a Mariner and is still holding onto a spot in the Orioles rotation. Garcia has actually done a decent job on the road, but home stars are a different story where he has a 5.74 ERA. His last five starts have gone 4-1 to the OVER. Haren has been an OVER machine as well, allowing seven of them to cash in his last ten stars. I have a hard time envisioning this one staying under the total.
Free Pick: TOTAL OVER 9.5 (-110)