New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds MLB Pick – May 8th

The New York Mets are in Cincinnati for game two for a three-game series with the Reds. The Mets enjoyed game one of the series as they were able to snap their six-game losing streak and took the game 7-6. The Mets had lost nine out of their last eleven games before last night’s game one win. The Reds are the majors worst team through five weeks of the season as they have the lowest win total (8) and the most losses (27) of any team.

Starting tonight for the Mets is Jason Vargas (0-2 16.20 ERA) and for the Reds it is Luis Castillo (1-4 7.01 ERA) on the mound. The Reds are -140 home favorites. The game total over-under is set at nine runs. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 PM PST from Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati.

The New York Mets added Jason Vargas to their starting rotation as Phil Hughes was struggling and they thought the veteran right-hander would be a capable number five guy in the oration. Well, it is two starts into his season, and the Mets might be begging for Phil Hughes back again. Vargas has an ERA of 16.20 in his two starts. No, that is not a typo, Vargas has given up fifteen earned runs in eight and two-thirds of an inning.

The one interesting thing for Vargas has been that he has gotten beaten up early in each of his starts, yet the Mets seem to hang this guy out to dry and leave him in the game to take even more punishment. Vargas has given up five home runs already this season. To say this experiment hasn’t been working out for the Mets would be quite the understatement. Vargas has been horrific.

Starting for the Reds tonight is Luis Castillo. Castillo’s stats only look good because they are being compared to Vargas. The rookie righty has not enjoyed a strong start to his MLB career as he has gotten touched up in each of his seven starts this season. He has given up three earned runs or more in all but one of his starts this year. He has given up seven home runs on the season and has also struggled giving away free passes as he has racked up fourteen walks already. There just isn’t a lot of good that can be said about how Castillo has started out his career, besides he is young and we need to give him some time.

I literally couldn’t believe when I saw the Reds were -140 favorites. They are the worst team in the big leagues, and I was shocked to see them laying so much wood. I was fully expecting to look to fade Cincinnati today. Then I saw they were going against Jason Vargas and started to understand why the line was what it was. That being said, I won’t ever be backing this Reds team as big favorites this year. They just aren’t ever going to win enough games to justify being such big favorites.

But when I look at the Mets as underdogs, I just can’t trust Jason Vargas either. The Mets rushed him back from injury before I think he was fully ready and they are really paying for it. So, I can’t find a side that I like, but when I look at the total, it appears to offer some great value. The total is a higher one at nine runs, but I have seen lots of games this year with significantly higher totals, and I was surprised to see this one so low.

Each of these starters tonight could easily give up enough runs by themselves to cover this number. Game one easily sailed over as they combined for thirteen runs and I expect a similar game tonight. It wouldn’t shock me at all to see this game go way over.

This number opened at nine runs at -110 and the books have adjusted the juice up to nine runs at -120 on the over. That means the early sharp action is coming in on the over, which makes sense to me. It also means that the books are trying to balance their action and if adjusting the juice doesn’t get that done, we will see this total get adjusted to nine and a half or even ten runs. So, if you like the over in this one, and you should, you need to jump on it soon as this number is likely to jump up even higher.

Sometimes the timing of your bet is just as important as your side when it comes to making a long-term profit. Get the number while it is still a sharp one, as it is very likely to be on the move. I expect a slugfest tonight with lots of runs scored and an easy cover on the over. Give me the over nine runs at -120 tonight from the Cincinnati!

The Bet: Cincinnati Reds OVER 9 runs at -120


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