We nailed a big one last night when we backed the Pittsburgh Pirates as significant underdogs in San Diego, against the Padres. The Pirates rotation has been decimated with injuries, and their bullpen was certainly feeling the pains of overuse. So, I knew that they were going to ride starter Jordan Lyles as far as he would take them, and I really liked Lyles chances to shut down what had been a very poorly hitting Padres team.
And that is exactly what happened. Lyles was dominant as he tossed seven innings of one-run ball while racking up twelve strikeouts. The Pirates bullpen did their best job of trying to blow the game after hitting the bottom of the ninth with a 5-1 lead but eventually managed to hold on, and we cashed our ticket with a jumbo payout.
Being able to find spots like this one where you can take advantage of bad numbers is key to long term baseball betting success. There are lots of spots where a team laying -152, like the Padres were last night, is very reasonable. But I am not sure I am ever going to want to back this Padres team that can’t hit, with a guy like Joey Lucchesi on the mound, laying all that wood. We will celebrate the nice win and get right back at it today. For today’s pick, I will head to Miami where the Marlins host the Mets.
The New York Mets are in Miami Saturday for game two of a three-game series with the Marlins. The Mets have been on shaky ground as of late, as they have gone just 4-4 in their last eight games. That includes dropping game one of this series last night, 8-6. The Mets are hoping to pick up the win today to keep pace in the uber-competitive NL East, where they are in third place, four and a half games back of the first place Philadelphia Phillies.
For the Marlins, this season has been a complete disaster thus far, and it doesn’t look like it is going to get better any time soon. Miami has the worst record in all of baseball, and by quite a wide margin. Their .262 winning percentage would be one of the worst ever if the season ended today. The Marlins had lost ten of their previous eleven games before picking up the win last night in game one against the Mets.
Starting today for the Mets is Steven Matz (3-2 3.86 ERA), and for the Marlins it is Pablo Lopez (2-5 5.93 ERA). The game total over-under is set at seven and a half runs. The Mets are -119 road favorites. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 PM PST from Marlins Park in Miami.
When you quickly glance at Steven Matz’s stats, they don’t seem all that impressive. But when you dig a little deeper, you might notice that this guy has actually been quite good this season, besides one awful start. That awful start came against the NL East Division-leading Philadelphia Phillies and saw him get blasted for eight runs without recording an out.
Yeah, that was a rough day at the park for Matz and the Mets. But in his other six starts, he has been very good. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of those games and has allowed two or fewer runs in five out of the six. I know you can’t just throw out that rough outing against Philly, but if you could, Matz would have an ERA south of two runs. And when you look at this Marlins lineup, this should be the softest team he has faced all season long.
The Marlins are dead last in the majors in runs scored. They are dead last in slugging percentage. Dead last in home runs. And dead last in on-base percentage. To say that this offense is bad would be an understatement. They are dreadful. And they are going to have their hands full today against Matz.
In his last start, Pablo Lopez started against these very same New York Mets. He gave up ten runs in just three innings of work, including giving up three home runs. It was by far the worst start of the young man’s career. But struggling has been something that Lopez has gotten used to this year as he has allowed four runs or more in a start in four out of his eight starts. The Marlins have lost six out of his last seven starts.
This number doesn’t make any sense to me at all. Yeah, the Mets aren’t world beaters by any means, but they are a decent team that should hover right around the .500 mark all season long. And to see them as barely favored against a Marlins team that could end up being historically bad, is quite shocking. I did take a quick look at the run line, and it is offering us an attractive +137. But that fifty-six cents of premium is a little light for what I like to get when I lay that run and a half, so I will stay away from it, even though this game could easily end up in a blowout.
I’ll back the Mets in his one, laying just a little bit of wood at -119, and feel like I am certainly on the right side of things. Give me the New York Mets today in game two at -119!