New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Pick – MLB July 11, 2022

The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves headline the series of the week at Truist Park. This is for the lead in the NL East, with the Braves able to pass the Mets for the first time this season. The Mets are trying to go wire-to-wire in the NL East, but their lead continues to dwindle.

The Braves are fresh off a sweep of the Washington Nationals to inch closer to the top of the division. They’re the best team in the NL East at the moment. However, is there going to be a better 1-2 punch than Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom?

The Mets have been waiting patiently for the return of Jacob deGrom. The Cy Young pitcher hasn’t appeared in a game this season, after posting an ERA of 1.08 and a 0.55 WHIP last year in 15 starts.

DeGrom was rolling to another Cy Young before exiting on July 7 last year. If the best pitcher in baseball can find that stroke when he’s back in the rotation, it’s going to be a duel between the Braves and Mets in the NL East.

If that’s not the case, or there are more injuries, the Braves will pull away and clear.

Their sweep of the Washington Nationals wasn’t easy, with the Braves needing everything they had in a 4-3 win on Saturday and Sunday.

The Nationals got ahead for a 3-2 lead in the top of the 6th, but the bullpen couldn’t hold. The Braves notched a run in the bottom of the 8th to force extra innings and then win in the 12th.

Atlanta had a 4-1 lead on Saturday and almost gave that lead up, so it wasn’t a silky smooth sweep. They count all the same, though. This should be a quality pitching matchup at Truist Park tonight between Scherzer and Max Fried.

Head below for our free Mets vs. Braves prediction on July 11, 2022.

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Live Betting Odds:

MLB Odds Courtesy of Bovada:
Team Spread Moneyline Total
New York Mets +1.5 (-200) -102 Over 7 (-120)
Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+170) -118 Under 7 (+100)
Team Data New York Mets Atlanta Braves
Overall Record 53-33 52-35
Away/Home Record 25-18 30-18
Batting Average .252 .249
Batting Average Away/Home .256 .254
Runs Per 9 4.87 4.86
Team ERA 3.76 3.57
Team ERA Away/Home 4.24 3.64

Mets vs. Braves Prediction:

Max Scherzer will receive his second start since returning to the rotation on July 5. He was flawless, with no rust found on his shoulder.

Scherzer foiled the the Reds for 2 hits and no runs across 6 innings of work.

He pitched like a guy that didn’t need a warm-up start, as Scherzer was in the same form as when he left the mound in May. Before leaving with an injury, Scherzer gave up 1 earned run against the Mariners and then the Cardinals.

He has some starts to make up if Scherzer is going to win his fourth Cy Young. His numbers are strong, though, and he’s been on fire as of late.

The 37-year-old is going into Truist Park with an ERA of 2.26 and a 0.88 WHIP. In his last three starts, Scherzer has notched a 0.96 ERA and 0.75 WHIP through 20.1 innings.

Scherzer has been successful against this Braves lineup in his career.

The Braves are hitting .160 with a .226 OBP versus Scherzer in 135 at-bats. He’s been better at home, so the Braves shouldn’t see any relief at Truist Park.

Scherzer owns a 2.10 ERA and 0.90 WHIP across 30 innings on the road. He should continue pitching well in this one, which could turn into a pitcher’s duel with Max Fried on the other side.

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Betting Trends:


  • Record (Last 10): 6-4
  • 5-0 overall in their previous five games on a Monday
  • 25-6 overall in their previous 31 games after a loss
  • 0-4 overall in their previous four games versus a team with a winning record
  • UNDER is 3-0-1 in their previous four games versus a left-handed starter
  • UNDER is 2-1 in their previous series


  • Record (Last 10): 8-2
  • 4-0 overall in their previous four first game of a series
  • 2-5 overall in their seven games versus a team with a winning percentage better than 60%
  • UNDER is 8-1 in their previous nine games
  • UNDER is 10-1 in their previous 11 games games after a win
  • UNDER is 10-2 overall in their previous 12 games versus a starter with a WHIP better than 1.15

  • Max Fried is the guy that the Braves want on the mound if they want to outpitch Scherzer. Fried is just behind Scherzer with an ERA of 2.52 and a 1.02 WHIP.

    Fried hasn’t allowed hitters to do much lately.

    He has allowed 1 or no earned runs in six of his previous eight starts since May 29. Fried allowed more than 2 earned runs in just one of eight performances.

    The Mets have been worse against lefties this season. They are hitting .239 as opposed to .257 against right-handed pitching. In their previous five games, the Mets are hitting just .214 versus lefties.

    The Mets have to deal with one of the best lefties in the majors, but there is another big lefty on the other side that can extinguish an offense. If everything goes according to projections, expect a duel between Scherzer and Fried in a playoff-type atmosphere.


    Mets vs. Braves Pick
    UNDER 7
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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