New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Pick – MLB July 12, 2022

The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves return to Truist Park for the second of three games in this NL East showdown. The Braves had an opportunity to draw closer to the Mets last night, but they fell victim to Max Scherzer.

Scherzer went 3 innings with 3 hits, and 1 earned run allowed. He allowed a run in the 7th before exiting the game at Truist.

It looked like the Braves might come from behind, but a 2-1 deficit turned into a 4-1 hole in the final frame. Edwin Diaz handled the rest to close out the Braves, as the pitching staff allowed 5 hits and 1 run.

BRAVES SLIP TO 2.5 GAMES BACK
The Braves were right on the heels by 1.5 games, but the Mets pushed back to extend their lead. They used the absence of Scherzer and Jacob deGrom to catch the Mets, though Scherzer is back and deGrom is almost there.

With the loss, the Braves have lost two games in their previous five attempts. They swept the Washington Nationals and had three of four wins over the St. Louis Cardinals. Scherzer was able to put the brakes on the Braves last night, though.

The health of Scherzer and deGrom may decide the NL East.

This is the final week of action before the All-Star Game at Dodger Stadium. The top of the division could look different than it does right now. A strong push going into the break would do the Braves a lot of good, but I think it’s even more important for the Mets.

The Mets can’t allow themselves to go into the All-Star break with no confidence. They lost last night, but the Braves are coming on.

David Peterson will look to follow up Scherzer with another strong performance on the bump for the Mets. The red-hot rookie Spencer Strider is in the saddle for the Braves tonight. Head below for our free Mets vs. Braves prediction on July 12, 2022.

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Live Betting Odds:

MLB Odds Courtesy of Bovada:
Team Spread Moneyline Total
New York Mets +1.5 (-160) +134 Over 8.5 (-105)
Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+135) -160 Under 8.5 (-115)
Team Data New York Mets Atlanta Braves
Overall Record 53-33 52-35
Away/Home Record 25-18 30-18
Batting Average .252 .249
Batting Average Away/Home .256 .254
Runs Per 9 4.87 4.86
Team ERA 3.76 3.57
Team ERA Away/Home 4.24 3.64

Mets vs. Braves Prediction:

Asking David Peterson to do what Max Scherzer did is asking a lot. Peterson is a fine pitcher and can produce a quality start, though. He is going into Tuesday night with an ERA of 3.48 and a 1.27 WHIP in 62 innings of work.

Peterson has nice numbers, but he can be inconsistent.

The lefty is coming off two so-so-performances against the Rangers and Reds. He was hit for 5 hits and 3 earned runs to the Rangers, following up with 3 more earned runs against the Reds.

DECENT WORK RECENTLY
Peterson has posted an ERA of 4.32 and a 1.08 WHIP in his previous three starts. He had a similar performance against the Braves on May 3.

In his most recent outing versus the Braves, Peterson allowed 4 hits and 3 earned runs in 5 innings on the hill at Citi Field. The Braves have often scored against Peterson in his career, with 3 home runs and 10 RBIs in 64 at-bats.

Atlanta is better against lefties, as they’re hitting .256 vs left-handed pitching.

Overall, the Braves are sixth in the majors, with 4.79 runs per 9 innings. They are second in the majors at 1.56 home runs per game. They’ve been better at Truist Park, with 5.16 runs scored per 9 innings.

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Betting Trends:

Mets

  • Record (Last 10): 6-4
  • 1-4 overall in their previous five games on a Tuesday
  • 0-4 overall in their previous four second game of a series
  • 5-15 overall in their previous 20 games versus a team with a losing record
  • 1-4 overall in their previous five games versus a team with a winning record
  • 3-10 overall in their previous 13 games versus a WHIP below 1.15

Braves

  • Record (Last 10): 8-2
  • 10-2 overall in their previous 12 games versus a left-handed starter
  • 4-1 overall in their previous five games on a Tuesday
  • 9-2 overall in their previous 11 games versus the NL East
  • 4-2 overall in their previous six games versus the Mets at home
  • 24-9 overall in their previous 33 second game of a series

  • Spencer Strider is on fire as he looks to improve on a 2.60 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. He’s been at his best recently, as Strider carries an ERA of 0.50 and a 0.61 WHIP in his previous three starts into Tuesday night.

    Strider has allowed just 8 hits and 1 earned runs in his previous 18 innings on the hill.

    He’s split time in the bullpen and rotation in 2022, with Strider finding a home in the rotation. It’s unlikely that Strider is going anywhere anytime soon.

    The Braves are fourth in the majors with a bullpen ERA of 3.10 and a 1.18 WHIP this season. The Mets are tenth with an ERA of 3.54 and a 1.22 WHIP from their relievers.

    After having a tough night dealing with Scherzer, expect the Braves to get back to basics with a stronger performance against Peterson. I’m going with the Braves to force a rubber match on Wednesday.

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Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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