New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Pick – MLB July 31, 2020

    Rick Porcello (0-1, 27.00 ERA) vs. Sean Newcomb (0-0, 2.70 ERA)

The New York Mets had a grand opportunity in front of them to take at least three of four games against the Boston Red Sox. With Jacob deGrom on the bump and a chance for three straight wins, the Mets lost in an upset and then were 4-2 losers yesterday. The Mets got a decent performance out of Steven Matz, who went 5.1 innings with 3 earned runs allowed. The bullpen held up pretty well, but the offense was sleeping. Kudos to Red Sox starter Martin Perez who was strong with 2 hits and 2 earned runs in 5.2 innings. The 3rd inning was the only frame of offense for the Mets.

They had an opportunity to do themselves plenty of favors, but are under .500 with a record of 3-4 going into Friday. We’re only seven games into the season, though that’s the Mets we all know. Just when you think they have something going, and momentum is in their favor, the Mets lose a winnable game with deGrom on the hill. I don’t think it matters how long the season is for the Mets. 30, 60, 260, they’d still find ways to shoot themselves in the foot.

The loss of Zack Wheeler in the starting rotation doesn’t help the Mets either. Rick Porcello was acquired to replace Wheeler in the rotation. If last season and his first start of 2020 is any indication, then the Mets aren’t getting the Cy Young version of Porcello. It feels like forever ago, but it was only in 2016 that Porcello was celebrating a Cy Young. He’s regressed since then and hasn’t been able to regain the same form. Porcello sported a terrific record of 22-4 that season. He was on the receiving end of nice run support as well, so that helped get a Cy Young with an ERA of 3.15.

Porcello is scheduled to take to the hill as the starter for the Mets tonight. He will look to bounce back following a shoddy performance against the Braves in his first go around this season. Sean Newcomb, who will get his second start against the Mets this season, is supposed to be in the saddle for the Braves. Newcomb held up well, but had to escape damage in his first outing. Head below for our free New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves pick for July 31, 2020 in MLB.

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves MLB Baseball Betting Odds:

Spread:

  • Mets +1.5 (-150)
  • Braves -1.5 (+130)
Moneyline:

  • Mets (+119)
  • Braves (-129)
Total Points:

  • Over 10 (-108)
  • Under 10 (-112)

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NY Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction:

The Braves chased Rick Porcello after just 2 innings against the Braves on July 26. Porcello was pummeled for 7 hits and 7 earned runs in 2 innings. He also issued 2 walks for a really rough time in his debut of 2020. Porcello left the game with a 27.00 ERA and 5.00 WHIP. The Braves got to him early and often in a disappointing performance a year after Porcello had his worst season in the major leagues.

In his final season with the Red Sox, Porcello was tagged for a 5.52 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. He needs velocity to be successful and there wasn’t much of it on his pitches. When his velocity is down, Porcello tends to run into issues. The Braves have done well against Porcello in previous meetings, with the game the other day their best outings versus the former Tiger. They’re hitting .265 with a .294 in 95 at-bats. There are five players on their roster that are hitting for greater than .300 versus Porcello.

While Porcello is trending downwards in his career, Sean Newcomb of the Braves is in the prime of his career at 27 years of age. Newcomb has been steady throughout four years, with an ERA of 3.90 and 3.16 the previous two seasons. This was after he posted a 4.32 ERA as a rookie in 2017, so he’s steadily improved and getting better.

Newcomb registered a 2.70 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in his first outing of the season, which came against the Mets. He had to work out of some jams, but Newcomb is back home where he’s been much better. In 2019, Newcomb notched an ERA of 2.14 and 1.10 WHIP at home as opposed to a 4.78 ERA and 1.67 WHIP on the road. Expect Newcomb to be sharper than he was in his first appearance this season. The Braves should probably be in the -150 range in this matchup, so there is some bettable value on them at home.

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ATLANTA BRAVES
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.