New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs Pick – MLB April 22, 2021

The Chicago Cubs will eye a sweep of the New York Mets on Thursday night at Wrigley Field. The Mets are coming off back-to-back losses against the Cubs, 3-1 and 16-4. Those were two very different ways to win a game, but they both resulted in big wins for the Cubbies in Wrigleyville. With the victories, the Cubs have moved a game within .500 on the season. It hasn’t been a good start for the Cubs out of the gate, but they’ve shown improved form over the last two days against the Mets. From the pitching staff to the effort at the plate offensively, the Cubs have shown a little bit of everything at home in this series so far.

In the series opener, Jake Arrieta received the starting nod on the hill. Arrieta was fantastic, as he went 5 innings with 3 hits and 1 earned run against. The Cubs got just enough offense to get by for a 3-1 win. It was a much different story yesterday at Wrigley Field. The bats came out to play, as the Cubs caught fire for 16 runs. David Peterson lasted 3.1 innings on the bump after allowing 4 hits and 3 earned runs. The ball was handed over to the bullpen where they showed no resistance against the Cubs. The Mets sent out five relievers and they conceded 8 earned runs. They have to be much better on Thursday, or this is going to be another long outing for the Mets.

The Mets slipped to 7-6 on the season with the loss at Wrigley Field. They went into this series atop the NL East at 7-4, and are now barely holding onto a half game lead. Wide open is the best way to describe this division. There are four teams that can win the race in the NL East. The same could be said for the NL Central. The Milwaukee Brewers are currently leading with a record of 11-7 for a 1.5-game advantage on the Cincinnati Reds. Things are tight behind the Brewers, with the Reds, Cubs, Pirates, and Cardinals at 8 or 9 wins on the season. The Cubs have 8 wins with the Pirates and Cardinals.

The Cubs will look to complete the sweep with Trevor Williams on the bump tonight. The former Pirate hasn’t gotten off to the best of starts with the Cubs. However, his shoddy numbers can be accredited to one one lousy start against his former team. Otherwise, Williams looked fine against the Brewers and Braves. Countering Williams for the Mets is expected to be Joey Lucchesi. He spent the first three years of his major league career in San Diego and failed to stick in their rotation. Lucchesi hasn’t looked much better with the Mets so far. Head below for our free Mets vs. Cubs pick on April 22, 2021.

New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs MLB Betting Odds:

Spread:

  • Mets -1.5 (+125)
  • Cubs +1.5 (-145)
Moneyline:

  • Mets -120
  • Cubs +110
Total:

  • Over 9 (-120)
  • Under 9 (+100)

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Mets vs. Cubs Prediction:

Looking at Trevor William’s numbers on the surface does not look good at all. However, he’s been solid in two starts versus one poor outing. That’s the positive to take away from his three performances this season. Williams opened the season with a strong showing against a dangerous Brewers’ offense.

He gave up 2 hits and 2 earned runs through 6 innings against Milwaukee. His next performance against his former team did not go well, though. Williams didn’t get any “revenge”, as he was hammered for 10 hits and 5 earned runs in 3.2 innings of work. Atlanta didn’t have the same success against Williams on Saturday.

Williams did a nice job bouncing back from the poor showing against the Pirates. He allowed just 1 earned run through 5 innings on the bump. The goal for Williams to get back to 2018 form. Williams notched a career-high ERA of 3.11 in his third season in the major leagues. He had a breakout campaign, and the Pirates were confident bright days were ahead for him.

That obviously wasn’t the case, as Williams recorded an ERA of 6.18 in 11 outings last year. Despite a mediocre ERA of 5.02 going into Thursday night, like I said, it was one bad start against the Pirates that buried Williams. The Mets’ have had success against Williams in the past, though. They’re hitting .286 with a .331 OBP versus Williams in 56 at-bats. They have connected for 3 home runs and 6 RBI.

Joey Lucchesi showed some promise in his rookie campaign with the Padres in 2018. He recorded an ERA of 4.08 and 1.29 WHIP in 26 starts. However, Lucchesi hasn’t been able to improve on that season, and has tailed off. He didn’t see much action last year after getting touched up for a 7.94 ERA and 2.65 WHIP in three appearances.

Lucchesi has made an appearance out of the bullpen and a start so far with the Mets. His first start didn’t go well, as the Rockies scored 4 hits and 3 earned runs on him in 3 innings of work. He also hit a batter to show how wild his form was on Saturday. This Cubs roster has torched Lucchesi for a batting average of .447 and .463 OBP in 26 at-bats. That includes 2 long balls and 8 RBI. There are five Cubs hitting at least .500 against Lucchesi. Expect runs on the board in this matchup. Also keep in mind that the wind is scheduled to blow out to center field tonight.

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Our Bet
OVER 9
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.