New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs Pick – MLB July 17, 2022

The New York Mets and Chicago Cubs have one more game at Wrigley Field before going on their All-Star break. The Mets have a sweep in mind after a 2-1 and 4-3 win. Both matchups were close ones, with the Mets winning in extra innings after a dominant showing from Taijuan Walker.

For the second straight day, the Mets and Cubs went to extras, with the same result unfolding. The Mets scored 2 runs in the top of the 10th while the Cubs could only respond with 1 run. With the win, the Mets carry a record of 58-34 into the first-half season finale.

The Mets continue to enjoy life at the top of the NL East. They are up on the Atlanta Braves by 2.5 games. The Braves held onto a 2.5-game deficit following their 6-3 win over the Washington Nationals on Saturday.

Is this going to hold for the Mets in the second half, though? It almost feels like everyone is waiting for a big injury or two and the downslide to begin in Queens.

This has been usually how the Mets act when it looks like they’re about to have success. The health of Jacob deGrom may determine what happens next in the NL East.

The Mets worked well to build up a 10.5-game lead over the Braves on June 1.

That lead is only down to 2.5, but nobody expected the Mets to just run away with the NL East, right? It was clear the Braves were still getting over their World Series win and needed a minute to put everything together.

The Cubs are 34-57 and in a tie with the Cincinnati Reds for the worst record in the NL Central. If I’m forced to choose a team to finish last, I am pointing towards the Cubs instead of the Reds.

David Peterson is scheduled to have the starting call for the Mets at Wrigley. The Cubs are expected to counter with ex-KBO pitcher, Adrian Sampson. Head below for our free Mets vs. Cubs prediction on July 17, 2022.

New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs Live Betting Odds:

MLB Odds Courtesy of Bovada:
Team Spread Moneyline Total
New York Mets OFF -150 OFF
Chicago Cubs OFF +126 OFF
Team Data New York Mets Chicago Cubs
Overall Record 58-34 34-57
Away/Home Record 30-19 17-32
Batting Average .252 .244
Batting Average Away/Home .250 .249
Runs Per 9 4.82 4.20
Team ERA 3.63 4.60
Team ERA Away/Home 3.92 4.36

Mets vs. Cubs Prediction:

Adrian Sampson spent 2020 in South Korea with the Lotte Giants. I know this well because, during the Covid-19 lockdowns, the KBO was the most bet-on league in the world. Sampson did not have success and was surprisingly found a major league job despite his difficulties.

Sampson posted an ERA of 5.40 and a 1.56 WHIP in 25 games in the KBO.

Good on Sampson for attracting the Cubs, and good on the Cubs for taking a flier on him because it’s worked out well so far. He recorded an ERA of 2.80 and a 1.08 WHIP through ten attempts.

The last time we saw Sampson in the majors, he finished with an ERA of 5.89 and a 1.53 WHIP with the Rangers. From struggling then in 2019 to failing to find a rhythm in the KBO. And now, Sampson has looked much different with the Cubs.

I’m not ready to say Sampson can’t revert to his previous form, though. He’s entering this start with an ERA of 3.33 and a 1.11 WHIP in 27 innings of work.

Sampson only had five starts last year and four so far in 2022.

He doesn’t have the biggest sample size of action for us to say, okay, Sampson has finally figured it out. Sampson is going into Wrigley Field with an ERA of 4.41 and a 1.29 WHIP in his previous three attempts.

New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs Betting Trends:


  • Record (Last 10): 7-3
  • 4-0 overall in their previous four games versus the NL Central
  • 6-1 overall in their previous seven games versus a right-handed starter
  • 16-5 overall in their previous versus a team with a winning percentage below 40%
  • 7-3 overall in their previous ten fourth game of a series
  • 6-1 overall in their previous seven games


  • Record (Last 10): 1-9
  • 1-6 overall in their previous seven games on a Sunday
  • 5-22 overall in their previous 27 games versus a team with a winning percentage better than 40%
  • 1-4 overall in their previous five games after losing the first three games of a series
  • 8-21 overall in their previous 29 games versus the NL East
  • 1-6 overall in their previous seven games versus the Mets

  • The Mets have notched 2 home runs and 4 RBIs versus Sampson in 19 at-bats. Mark Canha is responsible for both home runs. Sampson must be better with David Peterson active on the other side.

    Peterson is fresh off a solid start with 2 hits and 2 earned runs vs the Braves.

    It’s been a consistent, quality season for Peterson. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 earned runs in five straight starts and in seven of his previous eight assignments.

    Peterson has held the Cubs to a .180 batting average in 16 at-bats. Offensive problems has been common for the Cubs this season, as they’re 21st in the majors with 4.23 runs scored per game.

    The Mets should do their part at Wrigley Field on Sunday afternoon. They hear the Braves knocking, and should push back on the final day before the All-Star break.


    Mets vs. Cubs Pick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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