New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins MLB Betting Pick – July 29

A key NL East divisional showdown will unfold Friday evening as the Marlins and Mets enter what promises to be a crucial series. While Miami has faded from the playoff race, their undisputed ace in Sandy Alcantara is taking the bump on Friday night, looking to stymie the hot-hitting Mets’ offense.

Alcantara enters in fine form, and is the current betting favorite to win the NL Cy Young. He has simply been dominant, and though the Mets enter this weekend set riding high after sweeping the Yankees in the always exciting Subway Series, Alcantara has the type of quality to bring them right back down to Earth. As the Mets contend and jockey for playoff positioning, wins have become even more crucial and you know New York won’t want to drop results to the lowly Marlins.

But Alcantara has been tough to hit, and struck out ten batters in just six innings in his last start vs. a talented San Diego lineup. He’s in the 90th percentile or above in virtually every major pitching category, and has already dominated the Mets on three separate occasions this season.

PITCHING PROBABLES: Mets: Chris Bassitt (7-7, 3.63 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 115 strikeouts); Marlins: Sandy Alcantara (9-4, 1.81 ERA, .90 WHIP, 133 strikeouts)

Chris Bassitt will be tasked to try and counter and match Alcantara, and it surely will not be an easy feat. Bassitt has been steady and quality this campaign, entering Friday night with a 7-7 win/loss mark and a 3.72 ERA. He induces all kinds of soft contact and does well to mix pitches and keep opposing batters off balance. Going against a struggling and depleted Marlins’ lineup should help him out on Friday night.

Though these teams are definitely trending in opposite directions as we close in on Tuesday’s trade deadline, there is still some solid value that we’ve isolated for Friday’s NL East divisional showdown. For added insight, the latest news, trends, and analysis, continue reading on beneath the posted odds for our breakdown and betting prediction for the second game of this entertaining Mets/Marlins series. Enjoy the game, folks!

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Live Odds & Betting History

Betting odds provided by BOVADA

Spread:
  • New York Mets -1.5 (+150)
  • Miami Marlins +1.5 (-170)
Moneyline:
  • New York Mets (-120)
  • Miami Marlins (+100)
Total:
  • Over 6.5 (-110)
  • Under 6.5 (-110)
TEAM DATA METS MARLINS
Overall Record 61-37 47-52
Over/Under/Push 49-43-7 48-47-4
Home/Away Record 30-20 22-23
Runs Per Game 4.7 4.1
Runs Allowed Per Game 3.8 4.3
Team Batting Average .253 .239
Bullpen ERA 3.65 4.38

New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Prediction:

Look for the key to this game to be the continued improvement and consistency that veteran pitcher Chris Bassitt has provided to the Mets. While we marvel at how dominant Alcantara has been, the Mets’ offense can and will challenge the Miami ace. In a game that remains crucial for New York’s playoff positioning, they’ll field a talented and varied lineup that can get on-base in a multitude of different ways. Besides, behind Alcantara, the Miami bullpen is fading and can be hit.

Look for Bassitt to hold a pedestrian Marlins’ offense off the board tonight. Without star second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr., this Miami team has tumbled down the standings, and seen their offense plummet as a result. He’s been very solid in three outings vs. Miami this season, striking out 18 batters in 19 innings of work.

For Alcantara, look for the middle of the Mets’ lineup to be able to take some quality swings and rise to the occasion of facing one of the NL’s best throwers. Both Starling Marte and Pete Alonso of New York enter the weekend set on a torrid pace. Marte is batting .383 over his last 15 starts, while Alonso is hitting a wild .458 with two homers over the past week of action. That’s a tandem that has had success vs. Alcantara in the past, and should be able to wreak some havoc in South Beach tonight.

Though Alcantara is tough to beat and figure out, the offense that “supports” him most certainly is not. They’ve faded of late, and enter the weekend series vs. the Mets 25th in runs scored, and 27th in team OPS. They’ve secured just 2.5 runs per game over their past 11 innings, and that somehow includes a 37-inning scoreless streak. While Bassitt is no Alcantara, the veteran has been steady of late and should be able to keep this Miami offense totally off the board.

Mets vs. Marlins Trends To Know:

  • Mets are 5-1 in their last 6 games following a win.
  • Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 road games.
  • Mets are 6-2 in their last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Mets are 29-9 in their last 38 games following an off day.
  • Marlins are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. National League East.
  • Marlins are 0-4 in their last 4 home games.
  • Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in Miami.

Runs will certainly be at a premium Friday night, as seen by the very low total of 6.5 across most sportsbooks.  The better value seems to be backing the red-hot Mets as they enter another crucial series for their playoff hopes and positioning.  While fading Alcantara is never easy, you’ve simply got to score runs to win games – and this Miami offense has shown an inability to manufacture offense at the moment.  Chris Bassitt has also been great of late, supported heavily by a talented and diverse crew of Mets’ bats.  Look for them to lead New York to another road win, and really hammer the Miami bullpen following Sandy Alcantara’s departure from the game.

Our Pick
Mets
Will S. / Author

Will has been working with The Sports Geek since its early days back in 2010. He began as a soccer specialist, focusing on detailed reports for major international competitions, including the World Cup and European Championships. Since then, he has produced weekly pick articles on both the NFL and English Premier League, while also contributing blog posts on the NHL, MLB, and even WWE wrestling. Will is also an avid sports bettor and daily fantasy player, always eager to share his thoughts and insight on anything going on in the world of sports.

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