New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies MLB Pick – September 15, 2020

Probable Starters:

Probable Starters:

    Rick Porcello (1-4, 6.07 ERA) vs. Jake Arrieta (3-4, 5.54 ERA)

Major League Baseball has a full slate of action on Tuesday from the early evening to the late night hours. We will get started at Citizens Bank Park in a matchup between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies. This series is scheduled for three games in Philadelphia.

The Phillies are coming off three pathetic days in Miami against the Marlins. The Marlins dispatched the Phillies in three straight after the Phillies won the series opener. The offense was nowhere to be found, as the Phillies managed to record just 4 runs in their last three outings. The Phillies are one of the hottest and coldest teams in the league.

They have a team that can look good as ever, and then flop in the opposite direction and go on a losing skid. With less than two weeks left in the regular season, the Phillies can’t afford to allow this losing streak to go on for very much longer.

It’s time to start winning and putting their foot down on the pedal. All it can take is a record of .500 to get into the postseason as a wildcard. If the playoffs started today, they’d be in with the first wildcard in the National League.

I don’t think a .500 team deserves to have a seat in the playoffs, but fortunately it’s only a play-in game, which you can argue isn’t really a true postseason game. Even in a normal season, I still consider the Wild Card stage a play-in round.

Even the Mets and their record of 21-26 still gives them a chance to play baseball in October. As unlikely as it is, the Mets could still play baseball in the playoffs. The San Francisco Giants are the last team in with a record of 23-24. The team morale might be low after two straight losses versus the Toronto Blue Jays, but they must pick themselves up and continue looking ahead.

The Mets are coming off a 7-3 loss against the Blue Jays on Sunday in Buffalo. Rick Porcello will be tasked with getting the Mets back on track, while the Phillies respond with Jake Arrieta. Two veterans that are past their prime clash on the hill in this one. This would have been a really good pitching matchup a few years ago. Head below for our free New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies pick for September 15, 2020.

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies MLB Betting Odds:

Spread:

  • Mets -1.5 (+130)
  • Phillies +1.5 (-150)
Moneyline:

  • Mets (-123)
  • Phillies (+113)
Total:

  • Over 9.5 (-115)
  • Under 9.5 (-105)

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New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction:

The New York Mets will hope for the best from Rick Porcello. It feels like centuries ago now, but it was only four years ago that Porcello was awarded the American League Cy Young. He had help from his teammates in that one, as his record of 21-4 helped get him there. Porcello’s ERA of 3.15 typically isn’t good enough for the Cy Young, but he was solid enough, and got a ton of help from run support.

Since then, Porcello has failed to finish with an ERA below 4.00. Porcello hit a career-low in 2019, as he notched an ERA of 5.52 in 32 starts in his final season with the Red Sox. Was that just a blip or a worrisome sign? From the evidence we’ve seen so far in 2020, you have to think that it was a warning sign for what was to come.

Porcello is on pace to eclipse his career-low from last season and set a new low on the hill. He goes into Citizens Bank Stadium with an ERA of 6.07 and 1.56 WHIP through nine games and 43 innings. Porcello is coming off a poor effort versus the Orioles on September 9. He was tagged for 10 hits and 5 earned runs across 4 innings of work.

The power bats have worked for the Phillies against Porcello, as they’ve connected for 7 home runs and 16 RBI in 151 at-bats. After getting nothing done over the past three days, expect the Phillies’ offense to get their offense working against Porcello on Tuesday.

Jake Arrieta counters for the Phillies in this one, and he’s another vet that has seen better days. Arrieta has an ERA of 5.54 and 1.49 WHIP through 39 innings. At home Arrieta has been at his worst, with a 8.25 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. Teams are hitting .327 versus Arrieta at Citizens Bank Park.

Arrieta has struggled in his last three outings with a 7.71 ERA and 1.86 WHIP. The Mets have hit 7 home runs and 25 RBI against Arrieta in 204 at-bats. They’re hitting .259 with a .295 OBP. There should be some runs up on the board at Citizens Bank Park.

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The Bet
OVER 9.5
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.