Yesterday we took the Toronto Blue Jays as road underdogs against the New York Yankees in a game where I couldn’t contemplate why the Jays were dogs. Alek Manoah is a budding superstar that I think wins a Cy Young Award sooner rather than later, and matched up with Jameson Taillon, I felt that Toronto was clearly the better side of the matchup and was shocked that I could get them with dog money. I hammered hard on Toronto and felt like I was stealing in a high-value spot.
Manoah did exactly what I expected as he completely shut down the Bronx Bombers to the tune of 6 innings of shutout ball, racking up 7 Ks, and allowing just a single base hit. I know some of you out there might have felt that I was overhyping this kid yesterday, but after watching him dominate what should be one of the top hitting teams in the American League this season, you now know why I was so excited to be able to back the Blue Jays as underdogs.
Fun W in the Br0nx!
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) April 12, 2022
It is early in the season still, but we are a sizzling hot 4-2 on money line underdog plays already this year. Being able to find value on underdogs is the quickest way to stack cash in a hurry, and when you are playing dogs, you don’t have to win anywhere near 50% of your games to show a profit. The fact that we have come out of the gates hot with a 66% winning percentage on these plays is just a cherry on top and it has led to a very profitable start to the Major League Baseball season.
Today we will stay on the grind in search of value as we head to Philadelphia for game 2 of a 3-game series between the Phillies and the New York Mets. The Phillies are (-145) home field favorites with their ace Zach Wheeler getting the start. New York will answer Wheeler with young gun Tylor Megill getting the nod for the Mets. First pitch is scheduled for 3:45 PM PST from Citizen’s Bank Ballpark in Philadelphia.
New York Mets (3-2)
The New York Mets won each of their first 3 games of the season behind some dominant work on the mound and some timely hitting at the dish. But after that 3-game winning streak, the pitching hasn’t been as sharp in their last 2 games, and New York has come back to Earth with back-to-back losses. Last night, in the series opener with the Phillies, the Mets jumped out to an early 3-0 lead and looked to be cruising to a no-sweat victory with a 4-0 lead, before the bullpen ran into trouble in the 8th inning, getting lit up for a whopping 5 runs, and giving the game away.
The Mets went out and spent a boatload of cash in the offseason, and many people are picking them to win the NL East Division. But if they are going to win games consistently, they need to be better at the plate. The Mets have seen Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, and Mark Canha get off to hot starts but established sluggers like Frankie Lindor, Pete Alonso, and Robinson Cano have struggled, and New York’s 3 home runs in 5 games is certainly concerning.
— New York Mets (@Mets) April 12, 2022
The pitching should be there for the Mets, but as we have seen in the last 2 games, if the Mets can’t score runs, they can’t win, and the bats need to get going before this 2-game skid turns into a sustained losing streak. New York will turn to youngster Tylor Megill tonight on the road, hoping that he can build on the momentum he has after a stellar first outing of the season on Opening Day.
Coming into this season, the Mets weren’t sure where Tylor Megill would fit into their starting rotation. New York completely revamped their starting 5 as they lost Marcus Stroman and Noah Syndergaard and replaced them with Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt. Throw in Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, and Taijuan Walker, and Megill was looking like the odd man out in New York. But as is seemingly always the case, deGrom got hurt, and with Walker leaving yesterday’s game after just 2 innings pitched with an injury that will require an MRI, the Mets are looking to Megill to fill those gaps.
Megill has already made 1 start this season and was fantastic, working 5 innings against the Washington Nationals, and not allowing a run on just 3 hits and no walks. Megill was very efficient in that game, throwing just 68 pitches and the Mets will need a nice performance out of him today if they want to beat this red-hot Phillies team that has their ace on the mound.
Last year, in his rookie season, Megill had his expected ups and downs, and hit that rookie wall in the 2nd half of the season, after pitching well early on. At age 26, this season is going to be a key one for Megill, and personally, I see a bright future ahead for the young right hander.
Today’s Starting Pitching Matchup
Philadelphia Phillies (3-1)
If I had to name the team that I felt was the single most underrated in the National League right now, it would be the Philadelphia Phillies. You are hearing a ton about the defending world champion Atlanta Braves, the New York Mets and their new billionaire owner that is on a spending spree, and of course the Dodgers and Padres are stealing all of the headlines out west, but you aren’t hearing much about Philly, and I am not sure why, as this is a very talented roster. In the offseason, Philadelphia brought in some hard-hitting bats to bolster their already strong lineup, with the additions of Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos.
Wheels on the mound. #RingTheBell
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) April 12, 2022
When you look at this Phillies lineup top to bottom, there is power everywhere with guys like JT Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura, and Didi Gregorious to go along with last year’s NL MVP Bryce Harper, in addition to Schwarber and Castellanos. This team is going to score a bunch of runs this season, and while we haven’t seen a ton of run production out of them just yet, with the exception of opening day, when they plated 9 runs, you can rest assured that by the end of the season, these guys are going to be near the top of basically every team hitting stat in the National League.
We know the bats are going to be the main driver of success in Philadelphia this season, but if you want to make the playoffs you have to be able to pitch at a high level as well. Aaron Nola is solid, Kyle Gibson is going to be better than he was last year when he posted an ERA north of 5 runs in his first season in the City of Brotherly Love, but the back half of the rotation is shaky with Ranger Suarez and Zach Eflin both expected to eat up big innings. The one guy that Philly can lean on though, is their ace, Zach Wheeler.
Wheeler makes his 2022 debut tonight after missing some time with a minor injury and he is looking to continue the success he has had in his tenure with the Phillies. Wheeler was always a promising pitcher in his time with the Mets, but now that he is in Philly, he is amongst the best pitchers in the National League.
Last year, he won 14 games with a 2.78 ERA and finished runner up for the Cy Young Award and he even picked up a couple of MVP votes. This year, the Phillies are hoping to ride him to a postseason appearance, and as their best arm, he needs to be at his very best if the Phillies are going to breakthrough with a spot in the playoffs.
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Odds And Team Statistics
The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:
|Teams||Money line||Total||Run Line|
|New York Mets||(+130)||Over 8.5 (-110)||+1.5 (-150)|
|Philadelphia Phillies||(-145)||Under 8.5 (-110)||-1.5 (+130)|
|Team Data||New York Mets||Philadelphia Phillies|
|Runs Per Game||4.60||4.75|
|Runs Against Per Game||2.20||3.25|
|Hits Per Game||9.60||7.25|
|K’s Per Game||8.40||7.75|
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction:
This line opened with the Phillies laying (-160) and has been steadily on the move ever since, shifting 15 points towards the road team. I am not sure why the public has decided that the Mets, after blowing last night’s game in spectacular fashion, are now the side to be on in this game, against Phillies ace Zack Wheeler. Last year, Wheeler owned his former team, as he posted a 3-1 record and 2.10 ERA in 5 starts against New York, and I like him again tonight as a small home field favorite.
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends:
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Mets’ last 6 games
- NY Mets are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games against Philadelphia
- NY Mets are 4-11 SU in their last 15 games on the road
- NY Mets are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Mets’ last 6 games against an opponent in the National League
- The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Philadelphia’s last 18 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia’s last 8 games against NY Mets
- Philadelphia is 8-2 SU in their last 10 games at home
- Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Mets
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia’s last 9 games against an opponent in the National League
We already talked about how I much prefer to bet on underdogs as there can be a ton of value on dogs, particularly early in the season when so much is up in the air, and we don’t quite know who is who just yet. But if you bet baseball as much as I do, you need to have a deep playbook, where no value is left unexploited. That means that sometimes you are going to take dogs, other times you are going to take favorites, and you also need to sprinkle in the occasional run line or alternate spread bet as well. If you want to grind out a profit when betting on Big League Baseball, every option needs to be on the table.
So, instead of taking the underdog Mets in this game, I am going to back the home team Phillies at a price that I see as undervalued. I actually felt that the opening line was already a bit undervalued as Zach Wheeler is a legit ace, and as long as he is fully healthy, and I am being told that is the case, he should probably be laying (-200) in this game at home. To be able to get them at this discounted price thanks to what I feel was a bad public action driven line move, shows all kinds of value.
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) April 12, 2022
Even with as much hype as there is surrounding the Mets, this season is already starting to look like a typical Mets season. They spent a bunch of money, they brought in some talent, but they can’t stay healthy, and they are already a shell of their expected selves just a week into the season. New York has lost back-to-back games and after losing in as painful of fashion as possible last night, I think they come out flat tonight against Zack Wheeler. When your bats are struggling, Zack Wheeler isn’t the guy you want to face when you are trying to snap out of a funk.
I actually like Tylor Megill, but he isn’t anywhere near the level of Zach Wheeler, and when I compare these lineups, I see the Phillies as better just about everywhere right now. Expect a lower scoring game where Philly touches up Megill for a couple of runs early and Zach Wheeler gets them into the 6th or 7th inning with a lead. I will call this one at a 3-1 final with the Phillies winning as small home favorites.