The Milwaukee Brewers are making us a fortune down the stretch this year! I have been riding Milwaukee for much of the second half of the year, and they rarely disappoint. They have been so hot that I even broke one of my own rules yesterday, by taking them on the run line at home. The home run line bet is always a very risky one, but when it pays off like it did last night, it sure can be profitable!
Game two of the NLDS played out very similarly to game one. The Brewers pitching staff completely shut down the Rockies attack and had many scoring opportunities that they just couldn’t cash in on. The Brewers clung to a 1-0 lead heading into the eighth inning, and it looked like we might regret going for the jumbo run line payout. After squandering a second and third with no men out opportunity in the seventh inning, the Brewers proceeded to load the bases with no outs in the eighth.
This time they didn’t let the opportunity pass them by as they managed to plate three runs and put some much-needed insurance runs on the board. The lead held in the ninth and we cashed our +125 ticket. The series now shifts to Colorado with the Rockies down two games, and their backs are against the wall. For today’s pick, I will take a look at the game between the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox.
The New York Yankees are in Boston Saturday for game two of the ALDS, with their hated rivals, the Red Sox. The Red Sox took game one last night, holding on for a 5-4 win. Boston jumped out to a 5-0 lead early and this game looked to be all but over. But the Yankees hit themselves back into things and had the tying run at the plate in the ninth inning but couldn’t complete the comeback. Both starters underwhelmed as JA Happ for New York last just two innings and got pounded for five runs, and Chris Sale for Boston only got in five and a third innings of work before being pulled.
Starting tonight for the Yankees is Masahiro Tanaka (12-6 3.75 ERA), and for the Red Sox, it is David Price (16-7 3.58 ERA). This game has a very tight line as it currently sits with Boston as slight -107 home favorites. The game total over-under is set at nine runs. First pitch is scheduled for 5:15 PM PST from Fenway Park in Boston.
David Price stinks in the playoffs. His struggles have been well documented. As a starter in the postseason, he is 0-8 with a 5.84 ERA. He also has had a lot of well-documented struggles against the Yankees including a 0-3 record and an ERA of 10.34 against the Bronx Bombers this season. But what nobody knows for a fact, is how well he will pitch tonight in a huge game two.
The Red Sox have done a great job supporting Price this season, and he has more than held up his side of the bargain down the stretch. In August and September, Price went 5-1 with an ERA below three runs, and the Red Sox won seven out of his nine starts. Going back to July, the Red Sox have won eleven out of his last thirteen starts.
Price gets a lot of hate as he signed a ginormous contract to come to Boston, but in reality, he has been pretty good this season. He has more strikeouts than innings pitched, his 3.58 ERA is decent, and his sixteen wins were seventh in the American League. So, while lots of people like to act like Price has been terrible since signing that huge contract to come to Boston, the fact is that is just not true.
Masahiro Tanaka is kind of the opposite of David Price. His stats aren’t all that great, but lots of people seem to think he is an elite pitcher. He isn’t. And it’s not that he doesn’t have elite stuff, he certainly does, it is that he struggles to stay consistent. Tanaka has twelve different starts this year where he has allowed one run or fewer. So, when he is on his game, he can certainly shut a team down.
But he also has thirteen starts this year where he has allowed three runs or more. It is very hot and cold for Tanaka, he is either on his game, or he isn’t. I would expect the Yankees to keep him on a very tight leash tonight. If he doesn’t have his best stuff, I could see him getting yanked quickly.
All the stats say that New York is the side to be on in this one. Price stinks in the playoffs. Tanaka has been great in the playoffs. And Price can’t beat the Yankees, like ever. But when you look at how Tanka has pitched against the Red Sox this year, you might be surprised at just how terrible he has been against Boston. In his second to last start of the year, Tanaka got hammered by Boston for five runs in just four innings of work.
In his previous start against Boston before that one, he lasted just four and a third innings. And in his first two starts against Boston this year, he got pounded as well to the tune of ten runs in just ten and a third innings of work. So, if people think that Tanaka is going to march into Fenway Park and shut down the Red Sox they have another thing coming. I expect a higher scoring game that should sail over the nine-run game total and a total shootout that ends with Boston winning the game late.
It always just feels more important, more special, when the Yankees and the Red Sox play, and I think we are in store for an absolute classic game tonight. So, I will give you two bets for tonight. The over nine runs at +100 and the Red Sox at -107!