We found a juicy spot yesterday when we were able to back the Minnesota Twins as small road favorites against the St. Louis Cardinals in game one of a doubleheader. I felt that the Twins were being undervalued as they had their ace on the mound in Jose Berrios, and they had caught fire in September, winning six out of their seven games this month.
I also felt that the Cardinal’s brutal schedule of playing nearly every day, with several doubleheaders mixed in, was starting to take its toll, and that starting Carlos Martinez, a guy who was making just his second start in the last two years, was going to be rusty. I acknowledged that Martinez had electric stuff, but expected him to get smashed and pulled from the game early and that if he wasn’t sharp, the Cardinals could get blow out.
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) September 8, 2020
Yeah, Martinez wasn’t at all sharp, and he didn’t let me down. Martinez couldn’t make it out of the fourth inning, getting roughed up for four runs, all earned, on seven hits and a walk. The Twins jumped out to a 5-0 lead and coasted in for the no-sweat 7-3 victory. For those of you that took my advice and expected the blowout and laid the run line, you were awarded with a very nice dog money payout.
For the Twins, they have now won seven out of their eight games in September, and now trail the Indians and the White Sox by just half of a game in the crowded American League Central Division. The loss was a tough one for St. Louis, but they managed to come back and take game two of the doubleheader, and despite the nasty workload, remain in the hunt in the NL Central. For today’s free daily betting pick, we will head to Buffalo, New York, where the Blue Jays host the Yankees.
New York Yankees (21-21) at Toronto Blue Jays (24-18)
The Toronto Blue Jays are looking for the sweep tonight in game three of a three-game series with the New York Yankees. The Blue Jays have been sizzling hot and have managed to win ten out of their last fourteen games and have jumped the Yankees in the standings. Toronto now has a full three-game lead over New York for second place in the American League East Division, and the playoff spot that comes with it.
For New York, the Yankees are in free fall and, shockingly, are at risk of missing the playoffs altogether at this point. Despite having the best record in the American League in July, New York has now lost fifteen of twenty and are now just a half of a game ahead of the Baltimore Orioles for the final playoff spot in the AL.
Starting tonight for the Blue Jays is Tanner Roark (2-1 5.74 ERA), and for the Yankees, it is Deivi Garcia (0-1 3.38 ERA). The game total over/under is set at ten runs. The Yankees are -145 road favorites. First pitch is scheduled for 3:37 PM PST from Sahlen Field in Buffalo.
New York Yankees
I would ask what is going on with the New York Yankees right now, but we know what the problem is, they just can’t stay healthy. They got Gleyber Torres back last week, but they are still playing without Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, and Gio Urshela just hit the IL as well. And even the guys that they do have on the field, aren’t producing at their normal levels.
Torres is just 2-11 since returning from an injury, and Gary Sanchez is looking like he just might be the worst hitter in the American League right now. Sanchez is hitting an abysmal .125 on the season. He has never been a high average guy, but I am not sure he should even be playing right now, as he just isn’t hitting the baseball. Sanchez has a total of just eight extra-base hits this year in 104 at-bats and is slugging .337, nearly 200 points lower than last season.
Deivi Garcia (0-1 3.38 ERA)
With their starting rotation in shambles, the Yankees have turned to 21-year old Deivi Garcia to start games in the last month. Garcia made his MLB debut two weeks ago against the New York Mets and impressed as he worked six innings and allowed just one unearned run. In his next start, he wasn’t nearly as sharp as he got beaten up by the Baltimore Orioles to the tune of four earned runs in just 4.2 innings pitched.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays were forced to play the first several weeks of the season on the road, as the city of Toronto banned them from playing in their home stadium. But since finding an adoptive home in Buffalo, the home of their triple-A affiliate team, the Blue Jays have caught fire. The Jays are 10-5 at Sahlen Field, and now have worked themselves safely into the postseason picture in the AL.
The Blue Jays made a big push at the trade deadline, acquiring Robbie Ray, Ross Stripling, Tajuan Walker, Dan Vogelbach, and Jonathan Villar, and that has paid off as they are 6-2 since the trade deadline. Walker has been particularly impressive as he has a 1.15 ERA in three starts for Toronto.
Tanner Roark (2-1 5.74 ERA)
Tanner Roark was one of several veteran starting pitchers that the Blue Jays brought over in the offseason, as they completely revamped their rotation. But as you can see with their recent addition of three more veteran starters last week, those guys haven’t been quite as good as the Blue Jays had hoped. Roark hasn’t been terrible, but he hasn’t been able to get deep into games, and he is always going to give up at least a couple of runs.
In a weird scheduling quirk, Roark has only pitched against three different teams in his last six starts, with two starts each coming against the Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles, and Boston Red Sox. He has had limited success against those teams and will be happy to pitch against a team he hasn’t seen yet this year in this one. One thing that Roark has been able to do, though, is deliver wins, as the Blue Jays are 6-1 in his seven starts and have won the last six times he has appeared in a game.
Who Do I Like?
The Yankees opened up in this game at -125 road favorites, and I wasn’t sure what the books were seeing in New York in this matchup. They are starting a rookie pitcher that has a total of 10.2 MLB innings under his belt, against one of the hardest hitting teams in the American League. The Blue Jays only scored two runs in last night’s victory over New York, but in their previous six games, they scored a whopping 46 runs, including four games where they scored eight or more runs.
Yeah, Tanner Roark isn’t very good, but neither is this Yankees lineup right now and even with his mediocre results, the Blue Jays seem to always find a way to win when he is on the mound. So, I felt that the Blue Jays as home dogs were the play and backed Toronto.
And imagine my delight when I woke up to see that the public was hammering the New York Yankees, moving this line more than twenty points towards New York. I guess the casual baseball bettors haven’t actually watched a Yankees game in the last month and felt that getting them at close to even money was a bargain? Whatever the case may be, I love that the public opened up a ton of value on Toronto and will fire hard on the Blue Jays in this one.
I expect Toronto to keep up their hot hitting at the plate and that they smother this 21-year old rookie. The Yankees just aren’t hitting, and even with Roark on the mound, I can’t see them having enough success to hang with Toronto in this game. New York has scored just one run in three out of their last four games. This once-mighty lineup is reduced to being one of the weakest hitting teams in the AL at this point.
I love to fade the public, and I love to back home underdogs, and I get to do both of those things in this one today. Expect Roark to look better than he should, and Garcia to take his lumps. At the end of the day, I see Toronto building an early lead and coasting to a multi-run victory. Give me the Toronto Blue Jays as home underdogs, getting +128!