New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles Pick – MLB September 16, 2021

The New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles end a three-game series at Camden Yards on Thursday evening. The Yankees are looking for a sweep in Baltimore following a 7-2 and 4-3 win. In their most recent win yesterday, the Yankees were backed by a solid performance from Nestor Costar Jr.

Costar Jr. went 6.1 innings with 3 hits and 1 earned run allowed. Chad Green was off the mark with 3 hits and 1 earned run conceded through 6.1 innings of work. John Means held his own for the Orioles, but when you play on a bad team, it’s still tough to win games. Means allowed 4 hits and 2 earned runs in 5.2 innings. However, a lack of support didn’t do much for the O’s.

You can find gems on any bad roster, and Means has been stuck on a bad team this season. Means recorded a no-hitter early on in the season for the highlight of the Orioles’ season. That’s a personal accomplishment that Means can put on his resume.

This wasn’t expected to be a good season for the Orioles by any means, so there haven’t been any surprises in Baltimore. When the Orioles marked a rebuilding when they traded Manny Machado, the expectations were for the Orioles to be bad for a long time. However, their fans would hope to come out of a rebuild soon.

It’s probably going to take a little while longer because the Orioles likely aren’t going to go from 46-99 to a competitive team next season. If they take a leap forward like the Tigers did this season, then it would be a major success. Their opponent this evening, the Yankees, are in the thick of a close postseason race for a wildcard.

The Yankees are eight games behind the Tampa Bay Rays with a record of 82-64. They are currently tied with the Toronto Blue Jays, and would have the tiebreaker for homefield if the postseason started today. The Jays and Yankees are neck and neck with the Boston Red Sox, who would be the first team out at the moment.

Every game is important for the Yankees at this point in the season. Jordan Montgomery is expected to open the game for the Yankees. He’s been an underrated hurler for the Yanks in 2021. Chris Ellis is expected to go for the Orioles at Camden Yards. Head below for our free Yankees vs. Orioles pick on September 16, 2021.

New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles Live Odds and Betting History:

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
NY Yankees -1.5 (-157) -236 Over 10 (-115)
Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (+137) +213 Under 10 (-105)
Team Data NY Yankees Baltimore Orioles
Overall Record 82-64 46-99
Away/Home Record 41-33 22-51
Batting Average .235 .237
Batting Average Away/Home .239 .250
Runs Per 9 4.45 5.13
Team ERA 5.23 4.25
Team ERA Away/Home 3.73 5.94

Yankees vs. Orioles Prediction:

Jordan Montgomery has been fine for the Yankees this season. He hasn’t been excellent by any means, but his presence in the rotation has been valuable this season for his team. Montgomery isn’t going to get any awards, though his ERA of 3.71 and 1.24 WHIP has helped support the Bronx Bombers.

Montgomery has recorded an ERA of 3.86 and a .358 OBA in his previous three attempts. He’s coming off a poor performance against the New York Mets. It was one of his worst outings in a while, as Montgomery was tagged for 7 hits and 5 earned runs in 3.1 innings.

Before that performance, Montgomery allowed 1 or no runs in three straight attempts. He conceded only 2 earned runs in 15.2 innings of work. His start against the Mets was the first time that Montgomery gave up more than 3 earned runs since June 15 against the Toronto Blue Jays. Montgomery went 12 straight appearances without allowing more than 3 runs.

New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles Betting Trends:


  • Record (Last 10): 4-6
  • 41-13 overall in their previous 54 games versus the Orioles
  • 24-6 overall in their previous 30 games at Camden Yards
  • UNDER is 8-3 in their previous 11 games at Camden Yards
  • UNDER is 5-1 in their previous six games versus the AL East
  • UNDER is 8-3 in their previous 11 games versus the American League
  • Merrill Kelly ERA (Last 3): 3.86


  • Record (Last 10): 3-7
  • 0-5 overall in their previous five games
  • 0-5 overall in their previous five games at Camden Yards
  • 2-10 overall in their previous 12 games versus a left-handed starter
  • 11-46 in their previous 57 games versus a team with a winning record
  • UNDER is 8-4 in their previous 12 games on a Thursday
  • Chris Ellis ERA (Last 3): 0.96

The Orioles are on a five-game losing streak, including back-to-back losses against the Yankees. Chris Ellis will be counted on to prevent the Yankees from sweeping at Camden Yards. Ellis has posted an ERA of 2.08 and a 1.15 WHIP across 23.1 innings of work.

In Ellis’ previous three starts, he’s posted a 0.93 ERA and 0.72 WHIP. Note that Ellis has allowed just 8 hits and 2 earned runs in his previous 14.2 innings on the hill. The Orioles are hoping that their trade for the former Ray pays off in the long run. Ellis made only two appearances, one in 2019 and another this year with the Rays.

In his lone start with the Rays, Ellis was sharp there as well, with 3 hits and no runs allowed across 4 innings of work. Ellis was called on against the Yankees on September 4 and had his strongest performance yet. The Yankees managed only 1 hit and no runs through 5 innings of work in a 4-3 loss at Yankee Stadium.

The total looks a touch too inflated in this spot. I think 10 runs looks like a tad too high here. Despite Montgomery’s most recent troublespot, he’s been reliable over the past few months. I’m looking at the UNDER as the play in Baltimore at Camden Yards on Thursday evening.


Yankees vs. Orioles Pick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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