New York Yankees vs. Miami Marlins Pick – MLB July 30, 2021

The New York Yankees are in Miami for a three-game series against the Marlins at loanDepot park. They are looking to quickly forget about a humiliating loss with Gerrit Cole on the bump. Cole was hammered early for 4 runs in the 1st innings, settled down, but then blew up in the 6th frame. He left the game having allowed 6 hits and 7 earned runs in 5.1 innings of work. Cole has to figure out how to pitch at an elite level without the “sticky stuff” or the Yankees are going to be on the hook for a nine-year contract worth $324 million.

They’re not paying Cole to be mediocre. He has to be on a Cy Young level consistently like a Clayton Kershaw or this wasn’t a good deal for the Yankees. It is best not to overreact to game-to-game production, but Cole hasn’t looked so great since the crackdown on substances. The Yankees can’t afford to lose Cole starts down the stretch. They’re in a tight wildcard race and need every win they can find. The good news is that the Yankees won the first two games against Tampa in St. Petersburg at the Trop. They didn’t drop a series against a good team on the road.

The Yanks are going into Miami with a record of 53-48. They are 8.5 games behind the Boston Red Sox for the lead in the AL East. As much as Yankees’ fans are talking about coming from behind to win the division, this just doesn’t look like a realistic goal. Possible? Oh yeah, there’s time left to erase this deficit, but everything will have to go right. The Red Sox going cold and the Yankees getting hot will do it, but they also have to worry about the Rays, who are only 1.5 games behind the Red Sox. And it isn’t like the Yankees have shown that they’re going to go red-hot. It has been a lethargic looking campaign for them.

The pitching staff has been the brighter spot for the Yankees. You wouldn’t know it after looking at what happened yesterday in a 14-0 loss, but the offense has fallen hard this season. In their two wins in Tampa, it wasn’t the offense that got them the series win. They won a 3-1 and 4-3 decision to barely get by.

The Yankees made a surprise deal for Anthony Rizzo at the deadline to give the Bronx Bombers a stacked infield. However, if the chemistry and energy isn’t there in the clubhouse, Rizzo probably won’t change much despite being a big acquisition. On paper this Yankee team already looked great. Jameson Taillon, who has been hot recently, gets the start to open this series in Miami. Rookie Zach Thompson will counter for the Marlins at home. Head below for our free Yankees vs. Marlins pick for July 30, 2021.

New York Yankees vs. Miami Marlins MLB Betting Odds:


  • Yankees -1.5 (-110)
  • Marlins +1.5 (-110)

    Yankees -165

  • Marlins +152

  • Over 8 (-106)
  • Under 8 (-114)


Yankees vs. Marlins Prediction:

Jameson Taillon has been in excellent form as of late for the Yankees. He’s been pitching better than Gerritt Cole recently. Taillon is a lot cheaper than Cole. The former Pirate owns an overall ERA of 4.36 and 1.24 WHIP through 95 innings of work. In his previous three attempts, Taillon posted an ERA of 1.47 and 0.98 WHIP.

Since July 6, Taillon hasn’t allowed more than 2 earned runs in four outings. This includes some tough outings against the Red Sox twice, Astros, and Mariners. All of those teams have fairly dangerous offenses and Taillon handled the challenge brilliantly. If we want to go back further, Taillon hasn’t allowed more than 2 earned runs in six of his previous seven games. The Marlins are hitting .239 against Taillon in 61 at-bats.

The offense hasn’t been impressive for the Marlins, and has been holding them back from going back to the postseason this year. There has been nothing wrong with their rotation and bullpen, but the lineup has been leaving a lot of runs out there on the field. The Marlins are 28th in the majors with 4.08 runs scored per 9 innings. They’ve struggled to hit the long ball with only 1.03 per game for 27th in the majors.

The Marlins are masters at developing young pitchers, and turning them into contributing members of the rotation. He’s no longer with us, but Jose Fernandez could have been an every year All-Star right now in his career. Then you look at the other talent they’ve developed that is currently in the rotation. Thompson could be the next that consistently delivers in Miami. In his rookie season with no experience last season, Thompson has recorded an ERA of 2.45 and a 1.06 WHIP in 33 innings.

He’s been a bit better at home with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. Thompson has allowed 3 or fewer earned runs in seven performances in 2021. The bullpen has been pitching their butts off this season. They’ve netted a 3.43 ERA and 1.18 WHIP for fourth best in the majors. The Yankees have been awful at the plate over the last week with 4 or fewer runs in seven straight games. This looks like a 4-3 or 4-2 final to stay UNDER the total.


Our Bet
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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