We picked up the win yesterday when we took the under eight runs in the Minnesota Twins and Los Angeles Angels game. I loved the starting pitching matchup, especially since most of the public had never heard of Twins starter Fernando Romero. Romero has ace level stuff, including an average fastball that clocks in at 98 PMH. Yesterday Romero gave up his first run of his big-league career and finished with a line of five innings pitched, allowing just the one run and striking out six.
It was another stellar outing for the young man and his ERA now sits at just 0.54 after three starts. At some point this kid is going to start getting the credit he deserves in the betting market. Until then we will continue to exploit it. For the Angels, Shohei Ohtani dazzled yet again. Ohtani pitched six and a third innings and gave up just one run on three hits and struck out eleven.
This game was never going over the total as it hit the ninth inning tied at just one run apiece. The best time to take a shot on a number is when the public is ill informed about a big aspect of the game. That happened last night as this line opened at 7.5 and the public bet it up to 8, as they just didn’t know how good Romero really was. That created a lot of value for us. For today’s game I will breakdown the matchup between the Oakland Athletics and the Boston Red Sox.
The Oakland Athletics are in Boston tonight for game one of a three game series with the Red Sox. The A’s have lost their last two series and are looking to get back above .500 in this series. For Boston, the wins just keep coming as Boston finds itself tied with the New York Yankees for the best record in all of baseball.
Starting tonight for the Athletics is Sean Manaea (4-4 2.11 ERA) and for the Red Sox it will be Rick Porcello (5-0 2.79 ERA). The Red Sox are big -157 home favorites. The game total over-under is set at nine runs. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 PM PST from Fenway Park in Boston.
Sean Manaea was the toast of the town earlier this year when he threw a no-hitter against the Boston Red Sox. Manaea completely shut down a Boston team that, at the time, led all of baseball in almost every offensive category. It was a stunning performance that put Manaea’s name up in lights.
Manea has struggled just a bit in his last two starts but he is still enjoying a stellar season. He has been a very hard luck loser of several games and has only a 4-4 record to show for a season in which he has the fourth lowest ERA amongst all starters in the American League. I had mentioned after his no-no that the cat was out of the bag on Manaea, as he had been a secret weapon of sharp bettors for the past couple of years. Well, it looks like that hype was short lived as the young lefty finds himself as an underdog yet again, facing the team he dominated just a couple of weeks ago.
The Red Sox will try and answer Manaea with Rick Porcello. Porcello is enjoying what could be a career year this season. And that is saying a lot considering he just won the Cy Young Award two years ago. Porcello is 5-0 on the season and has an ERA of just 2.79. He has been on the receiving end of quite a bit of run support but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t deserved to win a lot of games. He got banged up in his last start by the Yankees, but his team bailed him out and he earned a no decision despite the Red Sox losing the game.
This Oakland Athletics team is playing much better than just about anybody outside of Oakland could have imagined. They have played a tough schedule so far this season and have been right around the .500 mark all year long. Yet, they are still underdogs in most of their games. We hit the quarter mark of the season today, so the sample size is a decent one, and this team isn’t half bad.
And Manaea has been lights out all year. Through his first six starts of the season he had an ERA of just 1.03. I don’t think he is that good, but I do think he is better than he last two starts that saw him give up four earned runs in each start. I expect to see Manaea pitch well against a team that he has owned so far this year.
It didn’t take long for the betting public to forget that Manaea is good. This guy is no flash in the pan and he should be valued like an ace. Yet, here we are getting big dog money on his once again. Porcello has been great, and I would be shocked if he is bad tonight. But this feels like a dead even matchup to me yet one team is laying a lot of wood.
So, I will take a shot on a long shot and hope for a big payout tonight in Boston. Give me the Oakland Athletics at +137!