Orioles vs. Yankees MLB Pick – September 22nd

Things got a little too close for comfort against the Baltimore Orioles last night for the Yankees. They won the game, but the Orioles came to play and nearly sprang an upset at Yankee Stadium. The Orioles pulled within a run to make it a 9-8 ball game in the 8th inning. That was as close as they would get, though, as the Yanks added an insurance run in the bottom half of the inning to take a 10-8 lead.

They may have won the game, but they can’t be having that in the postseason. Pitching has been their trouble spot all season long and it was on full display again Friday night. If they do win in the play-in game, which increasingly looks like it’s going to be against the Athletics by the day, the Yankees likely aren’t going to get far with this outfit they have. They might have to put up double digits on the board often.

With Aaron Judge back in the lineup, the lineup is going to be awfully difficult for pitchers to contain. Nevertheless, pitching is ultimately what it comes down to in the postseason, and I’m so confident in them to out-pitch teams like the Red Sox, Astros, or even Indians. Masahiro Tanaka recently pitched himself out of contention for getting the start in the Wild Card Game.

Luis Severino hasn’t been performing at his expected level of play this season, but he looked the part in his latest outing. If I’m going to put money it, it’d be on Severino to get the start. It sure hurts that Sonny Gray hasn’t panned out in the Bronx. The Yankees would be much better off if they had him pitching like an ace. Severino, Gray, Sabathia, and Tanaka at the top of their games would have made for a fearsome rotation in the postseason, but that’s why games aren’t played on paper. Lance Lynn will get the nod for the Yankees tonight, while the O’s will give the ball to rookie David Hess. Get our free Orioles vs. Yankees pick below.

Baltimore Orioles vs. N.Y. Yankees Pick

David Hess (3-10, 5.22 ERA) vs. Lance Lynn (9-10, 4.90 ERA)

David Hess has gotten an opportunity to pitch at the major league level thanks to a bad rotation. Sometimes it pays off to play on a bad team. Hess has been okay in his first full season, but there isn’t anything he’s done that has been ground breaking. Through 19 appearances, Hess has posted an ERA of 5.22 and 1.42 WHIP. On the road those numbers increase slightly to 5.34 and 1.46 WHIP. This will be his first time pitching against the Yankees in his career.

Hess enters with an ERA of 6.08 and 1.72 WHIP in his previous three outings. The only decent offense he faced were the Rays. In the other two games, he was up against the Royals and White Sox, though he couldn’t make it to the 5th inning in either matchup.

The Yankees have scored 26 runs in their last three games and are a much better offense with Judge in the lineup. The three best offenses he’s pitched against on the road this season are the Red Sox, Nationals, and Braves. In all three he gave up 5 in each for a total of 15 runs in 13.1 innings. The Yankees are swinging the bats well, so I don’t foresee it improving at Yankee Stadium.

Lynn likely just has to be average in this game for the Yankees to win. He enters with an ERA of 5.52 in his last three starts. The worst coming against the Tigers where he allowed 9 hits and 6 runs in 3.2 innings. Since three nice looking games in his first starts for the Yankees, he has been rather pedestrian. In his last seven outings, Lynn has posted a 5.97 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. So, it’s no guarantee that he can be average on Saturday. I would take a look at the OVER in this contest.

The Bet: OVER 9.5 (-110)

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Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.