San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants MLB Betting Odds and Pick

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+105ODDS

OUR PICK

PADRES

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28 of Major League Baseball’s 30 teams will be in action on a baseball-filled Friday. We originally had all 30 teams set to take the field, but the Mets-Rockies clash in Denver was postponed due to snow. So, MLB bettors will have to make do with “only” 14 games.

Out on the west coast, the San Diego Padres will take on the San Francisco Giants in an old-school NL West battle. These two teams are currently looking up at the Los Angeles Dodgers in the division, but LA isn’t running away with it just yet.

The Padres are off to a 24-14 start, which is quite impressive considering Fernando Tatis Jr. has yet to play so far in 2022. Tatis won’t return any time soon after breaking his wrist over the winter. For now, though, the Padres haven’t skipped a beat without him.

The Giants are 22-15 and currently third in the division, though they’re only three games behind the Dodgers themselves. San Francisco has also dealt with some injury concerns, but Gabe Kapler’s squad is finally starting to get healthy.

Bovada oddsmakers think the Giants will defend their home field in Friday’s series opener. San Francisco is listed at -125 on the moneyline in a game with an over/under of 7.5 runs.

San Diego Padres

With Tatis sidelined indefinitely to begin the season, the Padres were always going to need their pitching to show up in a big way in order to compete. So far, so good on that front. San Diego’s staff has an ERA of just 3.55 so far this season, which ranks a respectable 10th in all of baseball.

The starters have been even better, ranking seventh with a 3.36 ERA. Sean Manaea, who arrived from Oakland in a trade just before the season, has lived up to expectations thus far. The big lefty is only 2-3 through seven starts with San Diego, but his 3.77 ERA is solid enough.

Manaea’s strikeout rate of 28.5 percent would be the highest mark of his career if he’s able to keep it up. The left-hander hasn’t issued many walks, while he’s done a fine job of limiting hard hits, as well.

The Giants may have gotten some reinforcements back into the lineup of late, but this lineup is still striking out at a healthy 24.7 percent clip against southpaws so far in ’22.

This will be Manaea’s second look at the Giants already this season. Back on April 13th in San Diego, the 30-year-old held the Giants to just two runs on four hits in six solid innings of work.

Manaea would go on to take the loss in that one, however, as the Padres’ offense supplied him with just one run of support.

San Francisco Giants

The big question coming into the year was whether the Giants could deal with the weight of expectations following their shocking success in 2021. After winning 107 games last year and beating the Dodgers to the NL West title, the Giants certainly weren’t sneaking up on anybody coming into the new season.

While they have won games at a playoff-caliber clip, they will have their work cut out for them if they’re going to keep pace with Los Angeles this term. LA looks even better than they did last season, even if the Dodgers haven’t yet fully hit their stride.

San Francisco will turn to veteran right-hander Jakob Junis tonight against the Padres. The former Kansas City Royal is 1-1 through four appearances with the Giants, including two starts. Strikeouts aren’t a big part of Junis’ game (22.5 percent), and he has had issues keeping the ball in the park in the past.

Junis allowed 30-plus homers in both 2018 and 2019 during his time with the Royals. Power prevention should be easier now that he’s pitching his home games in a more pitcher-friendly park, especially this year when the baseballs aren’t flying with quite as much gusto. Still, he’ll have to navigate a Padres lineup that recently added Luke Voit, Wil Myers, and Robinson Cano to the mix. Voit and Myers are fresh off the injured list, while the Padres signed Cano last week after the Mets released him.

Junis will have a slight advantage here, at least to begin the game. The Padres don’t have a single hitter on their entire roster with a single plate appearance against Junis in the past.

San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants MLB Game Pick

The Padres are 10 games above .500, but their run differential of plus-18 indicates they’ve been a little lucky to this point. The Giants have a slightly worse record despite a much better run differential (plus-35), while the Dodgers are in another stratosphere entirely at plus-83.

Please Note:

That said, the Padres have had to wait for some of their bigger bats to return from injury. Now that Voit and Myers are back, that run differential should improve. It’s also worth noting that Junis hasn’t enjoyed much regular success at the major league level in over three years, so this is an exploitable matchup for San Diego’s bats.

I like the Padres’ +105 moneyline odds to win this one on the road. The pitching matchup very clearly favors Manaea and the visitors, and the Giants won’t have an easy time scratching runs across the plate here. Bet the Padres to pick up the victory as plus-money road underdogs.

Pick:

Padres

+105

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