Padres vs. Brewers MLB Pick – September 19th

The Milwaukee Brewers will look to respond with a better performance on Thursday after a lackluster effort last night. The Padres put a halt to a six-game losing streak at Miller Park with a 2-1 loss. Adrian Houser had a nice night for the Brewers. He went 5 innings with 3 hits and 2 earned runs surrendered. The bullpen was able to keep the Brewers in the game as well, but the bats didn’t pick it up.

Dinelson Lamet was shining and the Brewers’ offense couldn’t do anything to put water on his flames. Lamet allowed just 3 hits and 1-run, with a whopping 14 strikeouts for a career-high. It’s a hard loss for the Brewers and they were fortunate to have the Cincinnati Reds help them out. The Cubs were losers by a score of 3-2 to the Reds, so the Brewers don’t lose any ground.

The downer for the Brewers is that they had an opportunity to take sole possession of a wildcard in the National League. As it is going into Thursday, the Cubs and Brewers are tied with a record of 82-70. Without Christian Yelich, this is a nice opportunity for the Cubs to go to the Wild Card Game, but the Brewers haven’t been going away. Down by three games to the Cardinals, the door isn’t closed on the NL Central as well.

Last night was the Brewers’ first loss since September 13th. They were on a four-game winning streak and 11-1 in their previous 12 games before Wednesday night. The pitching was on point again last night, but offense really could have needed Yelich in the lineup in that one. They missed out on a clutch hit late. In any event, the Brewers went on a seven-game winning streak, lost, and then picked it right up again with four wins in a row.

We’ll see if they can start a new winning streak Thursday afternoon at Miller Park. Jordan Lyles, who has proven to be a tremendous acquisition for the Brewers this season, will suit up for the Brewers on the hill. Second year pitcher, Joey Lucchesi, will be looking for a bounce back performance after getting hammered against the Rockies in his most recent outing. Head below for our free Padres vs. Brewers pick.

San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Brewers -157/Padres +133
  • O/U: 8

Pitching Matchup:

  • Joey Lucchesi (10-8, 4.22 ERA)
  • Jordan Lyles (11-8, 4.25 ERA)

Betting odds provided by bovada.lv

Jordan Lyles has been a completely different pitcher in Milwaukee than Pittsburgh. Maybe he needed a change of scenery away from Pittsburgh, because the trade has definitely worked out for him. Lyles left Pittsburgh with an ERA of 5.36 in 17 starts. In 9 starts with the Brewers, Lyles has been sharp with a 2.39 ERA.

In total his ERA stands at 4.25 between the Pirates and Brewers. There has only been one outing that Lyles had issues with as a Brewer. He allowed 5 earned runs against the Nationals in Washington, but other than that, Lyles has been on fire.

Note that Lyles has yielded 2 or fewer runs in eight of nine games with his new team. In seven of nine, Lyles has allowed 1 or no runs. The Brewers are getting a lot more than they bargained for when they brought in Lyles for some depth. They’re getting luxury at a budget price.

Along with his hot arm with the Brewers, he’s been hot against the Padres in his career. The Padres are hitting just .203 with no home runs hit against Lyles in 64 at-bats. He enters with an ERA of 2.03 and 1.14 WHIP in his last three trips to the bump.

Lucchesi has success against the Brewers, but he is coming off a terrible performance and hasn’t been reliable on the road. He holds a 6.19 ERA and 1.39 WHIP on the road compared to a 2.64 ERA and 1.08 WHIP at home. His problem has been keeping the ball in the park away from San Diego.

Petco Park is one of the more friendly pitcher’s parks out there and Lucchesi has taken advantage. However, he’s yielded 14 long balls on the road, while giving up 8 at home. Following a lifeless performance for the offense yesterday, look for things to get back to normal Thursday. The Brewers look like the play in this spot.

The Bet
BREWERS
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.