Padres vs. Diamondbacks MLB Pick – September 2nd

The Arizona Diamondbacks don’t get a day off following their slugfest against the Los Angeles Dodgers over the weekend. They jump right into a series against the San Diego Padres in the desert. The Diamondbacks pulled an upset with a series win against the Dodgers to keep their postseason chances alive. It was much needed success against a team that they were underdogs in for every game. They were unable to notch the sweep Sunday, though, but still an impressive series nonetheless.

Catching the Dodgers is going to be an impossible chore, but they’re alive for a wildcard. The Nationals and Cubs are beginning to put some separation between themselves and the rest of the pack, though. It’s imperative that the Diamondbacks keep playing solid baseball in September. Along with the Cubs, they have to worry about the Mets, Brewers, and Phillies, so it’s not going to be easy.

The Padres are hoping that everything comes together in Manny Machado’s second season with the club. The first was a bust without a trip to the postseason. And yes, they’re out of the picture going into the final month of the season. The Padres closed out their trip to San Francisco with an 8-4 win on Sunday. That puts them nine games behind the Cubs for the final postseason spot, which signifies just a matter of time before they are statistically out.

Ty France had a big day for the Padres yesterday, as he connected for two long balls. It was the first multi-homer game of France’s career. There is a lot of young talent to like on the Padres. If Machado plays up to his contract, then the Padres will be a sleeper in 2019.

A lot of people had them as a sleeper team in 2018, but now that they failed in that respect, everyone is going to forget about them. Beefing up their rotation would be a good starting point to becoming a better team next season. Rookie Cal Quantrill has earned a spot in the rotation next season. He’s certainly shown enough and has room to grow as well. Quantrill gets the starting nod against Mike Leake in this one. Head below for our free Padres vs. Diamondbacks pick.

San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Diamondbacks -130/Padres +110
  • O/U: 9

Pitching Matchup:

  • Cal Quantrill (6-5, 3.99 ERA)
  • Mike Leake (10-10, 4.67 ERA)

Betting odds provided by bovada.lv

Cal Quantrill is coming off his worst start of the year, but other than that spotty outing, he’s been locked in this season. Going into his most recent start against the Dodgers, Quantrill owned a 3.32 ERA. That got skewed all the way up to 3.99 after allowing 8 earned runs in 4 innings.

That said, it was the first game that Quantrill allowed more than 3 runs since June 14th against the Rockies, and that was at Coors Field where most pitchers struggle. Quantrill went 12 straight appearances, including out of the bullpen, without allowing more than 3 runs. In 10 out of 12 games, he allowed 2 or less runs, so it looks like his effort against the Dodgers was an outlier.

Heading into his matchup against the Dodgers, Quantrill allowed 2 or less runs in eight of his previous nine appearances. He’s been solid on the road, with a 3.75 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 36 innings of work. His opponent in this one, Mike Leake, has struggled with his new club. The D-backs acquired Leake from the Mariners and he hasn’t been as sharp in Arizona. Leake posted a 4.27 ERA in Seattle and has a 6.59 ERA in five starts with the Diamondbacks.

Leake has allowed 6 runs against Padres’ hitters in 35 at-bats. Four players in the Padres’ lineup have hit .333 or better against Leake. It isn’t a huge sample size, but I’m not feeling so hot about jumping on Leake at -130. That’s a little too expensive for me and is based largely on what the Diamondbacks just did against the Dodgers. However, they could be in for a letdown after leaving it all out there over the weekend. Quantrill looks like decent value here in the desert as an underdog.

The Bet
PADRES
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.