Padres vs. Dodgers MLB Pick – August 4th

Walker Buehler went the distance for the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday, as he pitched 9 innings of 1-run baseball. The Padres managed a run thanks to a Manuel Margot pinch hitting bomb. No one in the starting lineup was able to get more than a hit in the contest. It was a nice response by the Dodgers after they struggled Friday night.

The Padres won a 5-2 decision in that one, with the Dodger offense napping. They didn’t look like the top offense in baseball again yesterday, but with Buehler dealing, the Dodgers can save the runs for another day. Runs could be tough to come by with Chris Paddack on the other side this afternoon in Los Angeles.

The win gave the Dodgers their 73rd win on the season and on a clear course for the No. 1 seed in the National League. If they want to go to the World Series and guarantee homefield advantage, that’s not going to be as easy to accomplish, though. The Astros and Yankees are not going anywhere, and with the acquisition of Zack Greinke at the deadline, the Astros are not going to be an easy out.

The Dodgers didn’t do much of anything at the trade deadline. They already have a strong roster, but most were expecting them to get bullpen help. Other than that, there are not too many holes to speak of on the Dodgers. They will put their terrific 73-40 record on the line against the 51-59 Padres on Sunday.

Kenta Maeda is likely going to need to be on point with Paddack starting for the Padres. Maeda has been the weakest in the Dodgers’ rotation recently, but he is still fully capable of producing a gem. Head below for our free Padres vs. Dodgers pick.

San Diego Padres vs. L.A. Dodgers Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Moneyline: Dodgers -148/Padres +128
  • O/U: 8.5

Pitching Matchup:

  • Chris Paddack (7-5, 2.78 ERA)
  • Kenta Maeda (7-8, 4.07 ERA)

Betting odds provided by

Kenta Maeda will step on the rubber after getting rocked against the Rockies in Colorado. He allowed 7 hits and 5 earned runs in 4 innings of play. It feels like everyone that visits Coors Field comes out of it with a sour taste in their mouth. I am sure pitchers would love to wash that game off their record, so it doesn’t skew their ERA up considerably.

Without that game, Maeda has an ERA below 4.00 going into Sunday at Dodger Stadium. However, because of it, Maeda has an ERA of 4.07 and a 6.97 ERA in his last three outings. Nevertheless, Maeda has been sharp at home in 2019, with a 2.53 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in 57 innings. He has also looked good against this lineup in the past, as he’s held the Padres to a .207 batting average in 145 at-bats. Following a rough trip to Denver, expect Maeda to bounce back with a productive outing this afternoon at home.

What this game is likely going to come down to is the performance of Paddack. He’s already proven he can win here, having won a 3-1 final on July 6th against the Dodgers. Although, one of his worst outings of the season has come against this team, so which Paddack are we going to see today? In his first performance vs the Dodgers, he allowed 5 hits and a total of 6 runs, 3 of which were earned, in a 6-3 loss on May 14th.

That was only the second game in eight outings that Paddack had allowed more than 2 runs at that point in the year. We are likely going to see a good game at Dodger Stadium with Paddack and Maeda going to work. With Maeda having a strong season at home, the pitching matchup here is a bit of a wash. Depending on the Padres to generate more offense than the Dodgers is a question mark, though. I’m siding with the Dodgers to finish off the Padres with three of four wins in this series.

The Bet
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.