Padres vs. Dodgers MLB Pick – July 4th

The Los Angeles Dodgers concluded their short two-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks in thrilling fashion. Cody Bellinger went deep to walk the Diamondbacks off for the second straight game. This one was a little more thrilling, though, as Bellinger went deep to secure the Dodgers’ 59th win of the season. That brings them to 59-29 and a staggering 14 games ahead of the Rockies.

They’ve mounted a 19-game lead over their rivals, as the Giants sit in last of the NL West. The Giants still have three championships from the last decade. While the Dodgers went to the World Series last season, and have been a favorite for the past few years, their last championship came in 1988. In other words, the Dodgers don’t have much to brag about, yet.

Once again in 2019, it’s win the World Series or bust in Los Angeles. Otherwise, get used to hearing about how bad of chokers they are. When you’re playing like this in the regular season, sure, there are going to be massive expectations in the postseason. Clayton Kershaw has to finally shake off the postseason doubters and secure a place in the Hall of Fame with a World Series.
Thus far the Dodgers have done everything right without the services of Manny Machado and Yasiel Puig. In fact, shedding their salaries looks like a nice move right now. Not that they’re bad players, but there is more than enough firepower in the Dodgers’ lineup to put up big numbers without them without the higher price tag.

Machado will look to show this weekend that they’re missing out on a star, though. The Los Angeles’ starting pitching ranks 2nd in the majors, only trailing the Rays. If there is any need for improvement at the deadline, the bullpen wouldn’t be a bad place to improve. They’re 9th in that respect, so while that’s quite good, it is still something they can improve on. Head below for our free Padres vs. Dodgers pick.

San Diego Padres vs. L.A. Dodgers Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Moneyline: Dodgers -240/Padres +210
  • O/U: 8

Pitching Matchup:

  • Dinelson Lamet (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
  • Hyun-Jin Ryu (9-2, 1.83 ERA)

Betting odds provided by

Dinelson Lamet will finally be back on the bump after missing all of last season with Tommy John Surgery. He received the surgery last April and didn’t see an inning after a so-so rookie season in 2017. Lamet got six starts in the minor leagues before making the jump to the majors for his 2019 debut this evening at Dodger Stadium. In six games, Lamet posted an ERA of 6.00 and 1.25 WHIP. A+ ball is where he had the most issues, as he finished his stint there with an 8.00 ERA and 1.77 WHIP.

He improved in Triple-A, but was still off the pace with an ERA of 4.57. In his lone season of major league action, Lamet posted an ERA of 4.57 in 21 games. Not bad for a rookie, though it was frustrating he was unable to build on it and gain experience in 2018. It was a lost season for him. Considering how he was pitching down in the minors, it might take a bit of time before he gets over the surgery.

The Padres aren’t easing him into the rotation at all, because they’re giving him a mammoth task in this matchup. He draws the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium for his first outing since 2017. To make matters worse, he must do it against the National League starter for the All-Star Game.

Hyun-Jin Ryu has been named the starter for the game, just days after suffering from his biggest headache of the year at Coors Field. Ryu was dinged for 9 hits and 7 runs in 4 innings. He allowed 3 home runs, which was by far his worst outing of the year.

His numbers are still incredible at home, though. Ryu owns an ERA of 0.94 and 0.75 WHIP in 57.2 innings at home. He’s surrendered more than a run per start just twice this season, both of which came in April. After getting embarrassed against the Rockies, anticipate a bounce back performance on the 4th.

The Bet
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.