Padres vs. Dodgers MLB Pick – July 6th

The San Diego Padres may have been interrupted by an earthquake, but they got the job done and upset the Dodgers by a score of 3-2. San Diego have to keep beating good teams in the second-half. There isn’t much time for them to fool around in a competitive race for the National League wildcard. I’m just going to ignore their chances of winning the NL West, because those odds are way long and nearly impossible. Manny Machado will be sitting out the All-Star Game this season. Not because of an injury, but because he didn’t get voted into the game. He hasn’t been as much of a bust as Bryce Harper, but he has to get his batting average up from .272.

There are a lot of players who would love to have that average, but there also aren’t a lot of players making as much money as he is. Fortunately, though, he has decent power numbers with 20 home runs going into Saturday. Bryce has had nothing going for him this season. The Padres enter Saturday with a record of 43-45. Below expectations, but they’re still in a viable position to go on a run in the second-half. 16 games down in the division is too much of a mountain to climb to run up to 1st. However, three games back of a wildcard is not impossible.

The caveat for the Padres is that they have a lot of company around them. There are seven teams on the outside looking in within 3.5 games of one another. The Cubs and Phillies are currently in possession of the two wildcards, while the Nationals are the first team out. The Nats would love nothing more than to bypass the Phillies and laugh at Bryce Harper. Despite the loss last night, the Dodgers have nothing to worry about. Head below for our free Padres vs. Dodgers pick.

San Diego Padres vs. L.A. Dodgers Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Moneyline: Dodgers -158/Padres +128
  • O/U: 8

Pitching Matchup:

  • Chris Paddack (5-4, 3.05 ERA)
  • Kenta Maeda (7-4, 3.78 ERA)

Betting odds provided by

The Los Angeles Dodgers have so many dangerous weapons they can throw a team’s way on the bump. Kenta Maeda may not be the biggest name, but he is still a solid option for the Dodgers. The Rays are the only team who have a better ERA as a group in the majors. Maeda enters with an ERA of 3.78 and 1.10 WHIP. He’s been exceptionally good when he’s pitching at Dodger Stadium in 2019.

Note that he owns a 2.05 ERA and 0.84 WHIP at home. Compare that to a 5.52 ERA and 1.36 WHIP on the road. So, yeah, Dodger Stadium has done a nice job of skewing his numbers in the right direction for him. In his last three games, he’s allowed 2 runs in each game for a 3.31 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. In five of his last six outings, he’s allowed 2 or less runs.

The Padres are hitting just .218 with a .266 OBP against Maeda in 124 at-bats. We should see a decent enough game from Maeda to give the offense enough room to work with. Paddack has done a stellar job in his rookie season, posting a 3.05 ERA in 0.94 WHIP. Most of his quality starts have come at home, where he has posted a 2.36 ERA and 0.71 WHIP.

The road hasn’t been as nice, with an ERA of 3.89 and 1.21 WHIP. He’s taken a loss against the Dodgers already this season by a score of 6-3 in May. The Dodgers recorded 5 hits and 3 runs in 4.2 innings against Paddack. Cody Bellinger and Joc Pederson both went deep against him. The offense was stuck in mud last night, but I expect a different tune on Saturday. Maybe not double digits, but likely hit around their average of 5.5 runs per game at home. Look for a 6-4 win or thereabout for the Dodgers in this one.

The Bet
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.