Padres vs. Dodgers MLB Pick – July 7th

The Los Angeles Dodgers didn’t look like the Dodgers last night against the Padres. Nor did they look like the Dodgers the day before, either. Clayton Kershaw couldn’t find a win, and then Meada couldn’t either despite excellent performances from both of them. Scoring just 3 runs in two games is not what we’ve been used to with this team in 2019. Having said that, the Dodgers are in complete control of the NL West.

In fact, they could lose today and then continue losing for a week upon the return of play on Thursday. It wouldn’t matter much, because they have already built up a nice cushion of 14.5 games over the Diamondbacks and Rockies. The Rockies have been stumbling recently as well, so it’s a bit of a wash these last couple of days. San Diego are 15 games back of the Dodgers, so their outlook in the NL West is pretty bleak, along with everyone else not named the Dodgers. They are in a crowded field for a wildcard, though.

The Phillies and Padres paid their free agent acquisitions a lot of money. Manny Machado and Bryce Harper got paid serious dough, though where are they? If the postseason started today, neither of them would be in the postseason. The Phillies are a half game back and the Padres are down by 2.5, so it’s still within reach.

Being within reach won’t be good enough of an explanation if things remain the same by the end of the season, though. Certainly, the Phillies have a lot more to lose than the Padres. It would be embarrassing for Bryce Harper. The Padres can get to .500 before the All-Star break with a win Sunday. It would also be a nice way to go into the break with three straight wins against the Dodgers. Head below for our free Padres vs. Dodgers pick.

San Diego Padres vs. L.A. Dodgers Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Moneyline: Dodgers -160/Padres +140
  • O/U: 8.5

Pitching Matchup:

  • Joey Lucchesi (6-4, 3.91 ERA)
  • Ross Stripling (3-2, 3.45 ERA)

Betting odds provided by

Ross Stripling will be tasked with getting the Dodgers a split on Sunday. Following a couple of ugly performances by the offense the last two days, a split would feel good going into the break. Stripling has been a solid contributor for the Dodgers, in a rotation which features a multitude of weapons. He’s spent time in the bullpen and as a starter, being effective in both roles.

Stripling is coming off one of his worst outings of the season in his most recent start, getting touched up for 4 runs against the Diamondbacks. It ties a season-high of runs allowed, the other against the Cardinals back on April 9th. Stripling has been more effective at home than on the road in 2019, as he owns an ERA of 2.70 and 1.13 WHIP at Dodger Stadium. The only poor showing he had was in that Diamondback contest.

San Diego haven’t seen much success against Stripling in the past, as they are hitting just .203 with 2 long balls in 69 at-bats. This has the makings of a strong performance for Stripling on Sunday. He’s been as steady as they come in his four-year career with the Dodgers, and we likely see him looking good in this one.

The Dodgers have hit 4 home runs and recorded 9 runs against Lucchesi in 74 at-bats. He’s been a reliable option for the Padres this season, posting an ERA of 3.91 in his second season in the majors. However, saving his numbers has been the friendly pitcher’s ballpark of Petco. The road tells a different story of a pitcher who has struggled to get through innings.

While he has a 2.76 ERA at home, his ERA gets jacked up to 6.10 in 31 innings on the road. In his only start at Dodger Stadium in his career, Luchessi got torched for 7 hits and 7 runs in 2.2 innings. The Dodgers went deep on him three times before he could even record 9 outs. With the break looming, expect the Dodgers to put on a show for the home crowd in this one Sunday.

The Bet
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.