Padres vs. Dodgers MLB Pick – September 21st

A sweep of the Colorado Rockies might be the turning point in the NL West. The Los Angeles Dodgers put on a clinic over three games, as their lead in the division grows to 2.5 games. That’s no lock but their magic number dropped down to 8 after a nice series for the Dodgers. They only have nine games left, so if they can go 8-1 the rest of the way, it won’t matter what the Rockies do. That’s a highly unlikely run by the Dodgers, so the Rox are going to have more than a puncher’s chance.

The Dodgers take on the Padres for three games, and then three against the Diamondbacks and Giants. If anything, the Rockies have to like that they’re playing a team that will care about beating the Dodgers in the series finale. The Giants aren’t going to the postseason, but if they can ruin the Dodgers year, they’re going to go into the offseason with a big grin on their faces.

It would provide Giants’ fans some solace as well. The Giants have two recent championships in 2010 and 2012. The last World Series for the Dodgers came in 1988. They came a couple games short of erasing the drought against the Astros a season ago. As far as the Padres are concerned, it’d been more of the same for them in 2018.

They enter Friday night with a record of 61-92. That’s pretty much right where they were projected to be at the start of the season, so the Padres are who we thought they were. Eric Lauer will get the call for the Padres, as he looks to pad his stats in his rookie campaign before the curtain closes. Rich Hill will start opposite Lauer this evening. Head below for our free Padres vs. Dodgers pick.

San Diego Padres vs. L.A. Dodgers Pick

Eric Lauer (5-7, 4.74 ERA) vs. Rich Hill (9-5, 4.02 ERA)*Pitching Change

Rich Hill is one of those pitchers that is either on or he’s completely off. The Dodgers are hoping that they see good Rich Hill as we get closer to October. He is unlikely to see the postseason rotation, with Stripling and Ryu beating him out, but he could be counted on to make appearances out of the bullpen. Hill doesn’t have the switch in the ON position currently.

He is heading into Friday night with an ERA of 6.75, while allowing 4 runs in each of his last three games. Hill gave up 4 long balls in those three games which certainly stung. With everyone else in the rotation pitching at a high-level, he’s probably going to be watching postseason games from the pen.

Lauer has been looking his best recently, with an ERA of 1.29. However, two of those games were against the Rangers and Reds, not exactly the hottest offenses. Also, Lauer has seen his numbers fall to a 5.03 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, and .387 OBA on the road.

He will deal with a Dodgers’ offense that has averaged 6 runs per in their last ten games. Conversely, the Padres have averaged 4 runs in the same span. The Dodgers’ offense backed Hill with 11 runs in a 11-1 win over the Padres last month. I wouldn’t expect that kind of offensive output again, but I think the Dodgers come out swinging this weekend. In their last three meetings against the Padres, there’s been an average of 10.3 runs on the board. I think we see enough offense at Dodger Stadium in this one to get at least 8 runs. Good luck as always, and have a great weekend with your picks no matter what you are betting.

The Bet: OVER 7.5 (-110)

*Pitching Change

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Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.