We cashed a big fat winner yesterday afternoon with the Reds cashing in against the Cubs in a 5-3 victory at a whopping +160. Anthony DiSclafani got the victory, but the Reds did their damage off the Cubs bullpen with some runs in the sixth and seventh innings to notch their second straight victory over the Cubs after losing 10 of the first 11 meetings this year. It just goes to show once again, that in baseball, unlike other major sports, the VALUE wagers lie in a single player, not a particular team. Momentum is only as valuable as the starting pitcher of the day, and we were able to uncover a hidden gem for the second big plus-money underdog winner this week.
I don’t have any big underdogs on my radar today (let’s not get too greedy after all) but there is a really interesting game I like out West. So let’s head out to Dodgerland for tonight’s free pick.
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Today’s Free Pick:
San Diego Padres +127 at Los Angeles Dodgers -137 (Total: 7)
Drew Pomeranz (7-7, 2.65 ERA) vs. Hyun-Jin Ryu (First Start)
The Dodgers will get the long-anticipated return of one of the gems of their rotation tonight as Ryu makes his season-debut after missing the first half of the season with shoulder surgery. Don’t expect home to go too deep tonight, but DO expect him to pitch well. He has been an excellent major league pitcher to this point in his career and he has a very favorable matchup tonight with the Padres who are tenth in the NL in batting.
And say this for Drew Pomeranz; he might win, he might lose, but he will factor in the decision one way or another. He has gotten an L or W a whopping 14 times this season already. Looking at his 2.65 ERA, it is clear, the reason he has SO MANY decisions is the lack of run support. I imagine that will be an issue again today, both against Ryu and against the best bullpen (2.90 ERA) in the National League.
This one has “low scoring affair” written all over it; two good pitchers, solid bullpens and less-than-dynamic offenses. The TOTAL is set at a conservative 7 after opening at a more advantageous 7.5, but I am still heading UNDER tonight. I’m looking for a 3-2 or 3-1 type ballgame tonight with both starting pitchers getting five or six solid innings of work. Let’s see if we can notch our eighth win in ten tries tonight with some sterling efforts on the mound.