Padres vs. Giants MLB Pick – August 30th

The San Francisco Giants have one more month to get things together and go on a run. That run is going to have to come soon because they’re suddenly seven games back of a wildcard after getting close. Instead of selling at the deadline, the Giants kept Madison Bumgarner and decided to give the postseason a go.

It hasn’t gotten better for them since then, though, as other teams have stepped on the gas pedal. The Mets, Diamondbacks, Brewers, Phillies, and Cubs are all ahead of them going into Friday. They didn’t start off well in this series against Chris Paddack last night.

Paddack was sharp in a 5-3 win for the Padres. He allowed just 1 earned runs across 7 innings of work, while Dereck Rodriguez was tagged for 5 earned runs in 5 innings. It was a good night for Paddack who needed a night like that. He was struggling and people were questioning if the rookie was getting tired.

That can happen to a young pitcher who has never been through a full major league season. However, Paddack was able to get everything straight against the Giants on Thursday night. The Padres are further back than the Giants in the NL still.

They’re ten games back of a wildcard, which pretty well seals their fate. The first season with Manny Machado in San Diego is a bust. There will be more pressure on the Padres with each passing season during his lengthy contract.

Bumgarner will get the call to try and get the Giants back on track at home tonight. They’re in danger of losing their fourth straight game and 7th contest in their previous 9. Dinelson Lamet will look to make it five losses in a row for the Giants. Head below for free Padres vs. Giants pick.

San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Giants -125/Padres +105
  • O/U: 8.5

Pitching Matchup:

  • Dinelson Lamet (2-2, 4.30 ERA)
  • Madison Bumgarner (8-8, 3.71 ERA)

Betting odds provided by

Bumgarner will be up for a new contract for next season, so it’s going to be interesting to see what he demands. The Giants obviously didn’t trade Bumgarner. It’s within reason that he ends up back in San Francisco after he stayed here. This team was never a lock to go to the postseason this season with or without him.

Holding onto him may or may not have been the best move. We’ll have to wait and see regarding that. In any event, Bumgarner has shown that he can still pitch at a high level, at least at home. Maybe his ERA of 3.71 isn’t his best. Actually, he’s set to finish with the worst ERA of his career.

Most pitchers would be thrilled with a 3.71 ERA, though. Bumgarner has posted an ERA of 2.95 and 0.93 WHIP in San Francisco, having allowed 3 or less runs in his last 12 appearances at home. The last time he gave up more than 3 runs at home was on April 26th against the Yankees.

The Padres have struggled, like most teams, against Bumgarner in past matchups. They are hitting just .194 in 155 at-bats vs Bumgarner. He should be able to outpitch Lamet in this contest Friday night. Lamet enters San Francisco with an ERA of 5.06 and 1.38 WHIP in his previous three contests.

He’s surrendered 7 earned runs in his last 11 innings pitched. Lamet has been a bit wild with his control, having yielded 11 walks in his last four outings. Getting Bumgarner at this affordable price at home against Lamet looks like a pretty good deal. Despite the win last night for the Padres, they are just 2-7 in their last nine meetings against the Giants. The Giants likely ride the arm of Bumgarner to a win Friday night at Oracle Park.

The Bet
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.