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Padres vs. Giants MLB Pick – July 20th

Things are starting to heat up in the National League and familiar playoff contenders all appear to be hitting their stride. The Dodgers won their tenth straight game last night, continuing their assault on the universe with seemingly invincible powers. But they aren’t the only team rolling. The Nats finally lost last night, but had reeled off five straight prior, and the defending World Series Champion Cubs won their sixth straight last night, rolling past the Braves 8-2 and pulling to within a game and a half of the top spot in the NL Central. Most of us thought the Cubs would eventually overtake the Brewers. I don’t think many of us thought they could do it all in one week…

Meanwhile, my mini win streak was snapped last night as the Reds broke a six game skid in unlikely fashion, topping Zach Greinke in a 4-3 eleven inning thriller. We will try to get it back tonight.

Today’s MLB Pick:

San Diego Padres +190 at San Francisco Giants -200 (Total: 7)
Jhoulys Chacin (8-7, 4.33 ERA) vs. Madison Bumgarner (0-3, 3.18 ERA)

Perhaps the Giants season just was never meant to be, but there can be little denying that it became official once MadBum went to the DL for half the season after an ATV accident. The result since has been brutal; the Giants have second-worst record in baseball and sit 29.5 games behind their hated rival Dodgers. Their -106 run differential is worse only that of their opponent, the San Diego Padres.

But there is joy in Mudville tonight, as Mighty Mad Bum is looking to strikeout hitters once again!

The line here is massive number, and it is way too wide. This line is based on Bumgarner mythology, not reasonable wagering principles. THAT SAID, I am not betting on the Padres on the road where they are 16-31 this season. I’m also not laying two to one on a team as bad as the Giants HOPING that a guy who has only pitched once since his injury, a decent outing against these same Padres where he only allowed four hits, but two were longballs. The Padres have some surprising pop for a team so average offensively, so it seems quite possible he will give up a longball or two tonight as well.

I also don’t see Chacin coming out and dominating. His numbers are decent, and the Giants are pretty bad at the dish, but a run total of seven is expecting a lot from these two pitchers. Bumgarner, even when healthy, has been good but not great against the usually-lousy Padres. He owns a 10-8 record with a 3.38 ERA in his career against San Diego.

I’ll take both teams to scratch out a few more runs than expected and to eclipse the low seven run total.

Today’s MLB Pick: RUN TOTAL OVER 7

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