Padres vs. Marlins MLB Pick – July 16th

All of what the San Diego Padres accomplished against the Los Angeles Dodgers was sucked out of Petco Park this past weekend. The Padres went to Dodger Stadium and won three out of four games. Impressive and what could have been a jump starter for their season, turned into a sweep against the Braves at home.

Atlanta won three in a row to send the Padres reeling again. It has been such an up and down season for the Padres without too much consistency. They’ve gone through some pretty nice stretches where they play like a postseason team. Although, there’s also the bad Padres like we just saw on the weekend.

The Padres really have to stop that and find some consistency. They’re in the midst of a wildcard race and must put on their serious faces now. Despite a record below .500 at 45-48, they’re only 2.5 games behind the final wildcard, which currently is a tie between the Phillies and Cardinals.

So many teams clumped up fighting for this wildcard have had ample opportunities to pull away from the pack. However, no one has wanted it, and at this point if nothing changes, there shouldn’t be a team playing in the Wild Card Game with a record hovering around .500.

I will have faith in a team stepping up and taking control, though. Will it be the Padres? They are better prepared to go on a run than last season, of course. But they might be a year or two off from being a contender. Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. with some more experience under his belt is going to be a dangerous duo. The front office has to bring in some solid supplementary talent to assist.

The Marlins are way off from being ready to complete in a year or two. They’re 2-8 in their last ten games and 34-57 on the season. Rookie Jordan Yamamoto, who has been flawless in five starts as a rookie, will get the call tonight for the Marlins. Fellow rookie, Logan Allen, is expected to be making the fourth start of his major league career for the Padres. Head below for our free Padres vs. Marlins pick.

San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Moneyline: Padres -130/Marlins +110
  • O/U: 8

Pitching Matchup:

  • Logan Allen (2-1, 4.50 ERA)
  • Jordan Yamamoto (3-0, 1.24 ERA)

Betting odds provided by

Jordan Yamamoto has made quite the impression on his team and will stick around in the rotation for the second-half of the season. The native of Hawaii, appeared in five games and made an impact immediately. The rookie has yet to allow more than 3 hits in a game and had allowed just 2 hits in each of his previous four starts. In three of four games he didn’t allow a run, and Yamamoto enters Tuesday with a 1.24 ERA and 0.90 WHIP.

It’s also worth nothing that he hasn’t yielded a home run yet. This is across 29 innings of work in five starts. The Marlins aren’t babying him, either. Yamamoto has gotten into the upper 90’s on his pitch count. They’re not restricting him and surely it has paid off given his numbers. In 29 innings, he’s given up just 4 runs in his career thus far.

Logan Allen has made three starts and appeared out of the bullpen in one game. He’s been solid, but isn’t in the same ballpark as Yamamoto. Allen has posted a respectable ERA of 4.50 with a 1.44 WHIP and .359 OBA. In his latest appearance, Allen lasted just 1 inning after allowing 2 hits and 2 runs against the Dodgers.

In his most recent start, he was hammered for 7 hits and 6 earned runs against the San Francisco Giants. I realize he’s pitching against the Marlins and all, but backing him as a road favorite doesn’t look like good value. Yamamoto appears to have solid value as a home underdog Tuesday night at Marlins Park.

The Bet
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.