Padres vs. Phillies MLB Pick – August 18th

The Philadelphia Phillies’ offense fell asleep at the wheel last night following 3 runs early in their Saturday night contest against the Padres. San Diego were able to neutralize the Phillies with a strong performance by Dinelson Lamet and the bullpen. After Lamet settled down and got in a groove, he was wasn’t letting anything get by him.

Lamet ultimately went six strong innings and the bullpen picked up where he left off for three scoreless innings. The Phillies were on fire offensively and just got into a rut. And with that, Bryce Harper cooled off significantly as well. He went 0-for-4 at the dish after hitting the laces off the ball the past few days.

The Phillies will not be playing for a sweep today, but they can still have a productive weekend by winning two of three games. After today, the Phillies head on the road for five games. Two in Boston for an interleague series at Fenway Park and then three games in Miami next weekend against the Marlins.

It was a big loss for the Phillies last night, as they lose a game on the Cubs after they were winners in Pittsburgh yesterday afternoon. The Phillies are a game back of a wildcard, while the Nationals and Cubs would be playing in the Wild Card Game given the standings as I write this.

The Padres hope that this is a prelude for something special happening next season. In Manny Machado’s first season as a Padre, things didn’t go according to plan in San Diego. They spent a lot of money on Machado and will have to see results within the next few years.

With the win last night, the Padres enter Sunday with a record of 57-65. All that gets them is a 23.5-game hole behind the Dodgers in the NL West. Second-year hurler, Joey Lucchesi, will assume the starting role on Sunday for the Padres. The Phillies are expected to counter with former Met, Jason Vargas. Head below for our free Padres vs. Phillies pick.

San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Moneyline: Padres -110/Phillies -110
  • O/U: 10

Pitching Matchup:

  • Joey Luchessi (7-7, 4.25 ERA)
  • Jason Vargas (6-6, 4.03 ERA)

Betting odds provided by

Joey Luchessi has had a decent season for the Padres in his second season in the starting rotation. The Padres gave Luchessi 26 starts a season ago and finishing with a 4.08 ERA in 130 innings pitched. Not bad for a rookie who was getting his first taste of Major League Baseball action. However, Luchessi hasn’t been able to improve on what he did last season. He’s floated in the same spot essentially.

Having said that, that’s better than regressing significantly and watching what he accomplished in 2018 go to waste. If he could pitch every game in San Diego, then he would have been playing in the All-Star Game. When Luchessi must go on the road, his numbers take a significant dive.

Note that he holds an ERA of 2.91 with a 1.08 WHIP in San Diego. Conversely, Luchessi carries a 6.15 ERA and 1.37 WHIP into Philadelphia on the road this season. He has recorded just 1 win compared to 6 wins in San Diego. Luchessi heads into this one with a 5.17 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in his previous three tilts. The Phillies are hitting .308 with a .379 OBP against Luchessi in 26 at-bats.

Jason Vargas has made three starts for the Phillies and has been doing just about the same as he was with the Mets in Queens. Vargas posted a 4.01 ERA in 19 appearances with the Mets. He has an ERA of 4.15 in three outings with his new team in Philadelphia. Against the White Sox and Cubs, Vargas allowed just 2 earned runs in each outing.

A bad outing on the road against the Diamondbacks hurt his numbers. Vargas has been largely efficient at home, where he has posted an ERA of 2.93 in 58.1 innings. I’m willing to take a chance on the Phillies bouncing back at home to record two of three wins over the Padres this weekend.

The Bet
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.