We have a lighter MLB schedule on tap which is the norm for a Monday evening, but there’s still plenty of value on the board.
Let’s dive into some of that value with a Padres vs. Giants MLB Pick from Oracle Park in San Fran!
Padres vs. Giants Betting Odds
|Padres||-104||+1.5 (-220)||Over 8 (-110)|
|Giants||-106||-1.5 (+190)||Under 8 (-110)|
Padres vs. Giants Starting Pitching Breakdown
If the Padres are going to indeed nail down that final Wild Card spot in the NL that’s now turned into a dogfight with the Reds and Cardinals — at least — the club will need the premier version of Yu Darvish moving forward.
That’s what they got his last time out as the 2020 Cy Young nominee hurled six innings of one-run ball while allowing three hits and one walk against seven strikeouts in a win over the Angels at Petco Park. That outing snapped an extremely rough stretch for Darvish as he pitched to a 7.36 ERA across 25.2 innings in the month of July before working to a 6.32 mark in the month of August in another 15.2 frames while spending time on the IL during that month.
For the season, Darvish owns a 3.95 ERA/3.67 FIP to go along with a 3.09 xERA, 3.66 xFIP and 3.38 SIERA, proving just how dominant he was for much of the first half of the season. Darvish has punched out 10.73 batters per nine innings and walked just 2.03 per nine while home runs have the foremost issue with a 1.42 HR/9, no big surprise considering his career-high 44.9% fly-ball rate.
He’s been far better at home, however, posting a 3.19 ERA/3.15 FIP at home where he’s posted an elite 7.29 K/BB ratio, but he also owns a 5.40 ERA/4.66 FIP with a much low 3.19 K/BB mark on the road. He’s also allowed 1.31 HR/9 mark at home compared to a 1.62 mark on the road.
He’s made two starts against the division rival Giants this season, allowing just one earned run in each while throwing a combined 12.1 frames. He also struck out 19 in that time, but it’s certainly worth nothing that both of those outings came at home and both in the month of April, but his work on the road has been much worse, as has his work since the calendar flipped to July.
The Giants won’t be using a traditional starter in this one but rather an opener in the form of Dominic Leone who will open for the third time this season and third over his last four appearances.
He’s pitched a combined three innings of shutout ball in his opens this season, outings that came at home against the Dodgers (one innings) and at Wrigley Field where he pitched two perfect frames against the Cubs.
For the season, Leone has turned in a sparkling 1.48 ERA in 45 appearances and 42.2 innings, although his peripherals suggest he’s been fortunate given his 3.37 FIP, 3.14 xERA, 4.60 xFIP and 4.38 SIERA. He’s been able to limit the damage despite a 4.22 BB/9 clip, thanks in large to a tiny 3.6% barrel rate that helps explain a stout 0.42 HR/9 clip.
It’s worth noting that he down a 2.44 ERA at home compared to a sub.0.50 mark on the road while he also owns a 3.74 FIP, 5.00 xFIP and 4.84 BB/9 at Oracle Park as well. That said, his impact on this game is likely to be minimal given the fact he’s not going to throw more than two innings in this one.
Offense and Bullpen Notes
The Padres’ offense has taken a step back this season after a dynamite 2020 campaign, and their work has been especially tough of late.
For the year, the Padres sit 17th with a .312 wOBA on the season, but the drop in power has been most noticeable given their .159 ISO that checks in at a share of 23rd alongside the St. Louis Cardinals. Against righties such as Leone, the work has improved some off right-handed pitching as they sit 12th with a .315 wOBA off righties this season while the power improves to a .167 ISO that sits 14th league wide.
That said, the work in scenarios such as tonight has not been anything special, even if Leone is going to throw only 1-2 innings. They sit 15th with a .310 wOBA on the road this season, although they do rank eighth with a .317 mark on the road against righties, even if the number itself isn’t anything to write home about. If they see lefties tonight, they could struggle given their 26th-ranked .291 wOBA on the season against lefties away from home.
As for the bullpen, they’ve done their part. The Padres’ bullpen enters this one ranked fourth with a 3.34 ERA on the season, although their 4.03 FIP and 4.07 xFIP sit well above that figure. It’s also a group that scuffled a little bit of late as they are tied for 19th with a 4.31 ERA in the season’s second half, including a 26th-ranked 5.40 ERA over the last two weeks.
Once one of the best groups in baseball, this Padres bullpen has lost their way of late.
After surprising many on route to an above-average offense last season, the Giants have mashed their way near the top of the league in many categories this season.
For the year, the Giants sit fourth with a .328 wOBA, but also third with a .191 ISO. What’s more is that they’ve made the usually pitcher-friendly Oracle Park in San Fran look more like a hitter’s park this season as they are tied for seventh with a .334 wOBA at home this season and eighth with a .183 ISO at home as well, fantastic numbers considering the history of that venue.
First career grand slam for Mike Yastrzemski. The man has great timing. pic.twitter.com/quWDA1zut3
— Alex Pavlovic (@PavlovicNBCS) June 16, 2021
The Giants also sit fifth with a .329 wOBA off right-handed pitching this season, but the power improves all the way to a .197 ISO that ranks second in baseball behind only the Toronto Blue Jays (.201). Better than anything for Giants fans in this matchup is the fact they sit fourth with a .349 wOBA on the season at home against righties and fourth with an impressive .209 ISO, so they are in a position to succeed against Darvish this evening.
While the Padres bullpen was once the best in baseball as per the ERA stat, that distinction now belongs to the Giants who lead baseball with a 3.04 bullpen ERA. Their 3.77 FIP is well above that mark, but still sits fourth in baseball.
As for their more recent work, the Giants sit first in baseball once again with a 2.59 ERA since the All-Star break and third with a stout 1.74 mark over the last two weeks. Given this is a bullpen game for the Giants, they could give this Padres’ offense headaches given these numbers.
- Padres are 3-9 over their last 12 games on the road versus a right-handed starter
- Padres are 2-8 in their last 10 versus a team with a winning record
- Over is 4-1-1 in the Padres’ last five versus a right-handed starter
- Over is 5-2 in the Padres’ last seven road games
- Giants are 38-14 in their last 52 games versus a right-handed starter
- Giants are 36-17 in their last 53 home games versus a right-handed starter
- Under is 4-1 in the Giants’ last five home games
- Under is 6-2 in the Giants last eight home games versus a right-handed starter
Head to Head
- Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings
- Over is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings in San Francisco
- Over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in San Francisco
Padres vs. Giants MLB Pick
To me, there’s only one way to go here and that is the hometown Giants on good moneyline value.
The offense is better, the offense is better at home than the Padres are on the road, and the bullpen has been better, but especially of late. Given the bullpen game for the Giants and their sub-2.00 ERA over the last two weeks and 2.59 mark in the second half, it’s just going to be a difficult night for a Padres team that’s but shutout twice over their last three and three times over their last five
As for the Giants, they’re won seven in a row and nine of 10 entering this one, mashing at the plate to the tune of 8.7 runs per game over their last seven. They also won 6-1 when Leone last opened three games back, showing what the bullpen is capable of.
Add it up and the Giants should be able to grab this win over a struggling road Darvish.