Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies MLB Pick – September 26th

Our blazing hot finish to the baseball season continued last night as we hit yet another money line underdog winner. We backed the Milwaukee Brewers as road underdogs against the St. Louis Cardinals. I have been a huge fan of the Brewers all season long, and after their very aggressive moves in the trade market, I expected them to run down the Chicago Cubs for the Central Division title. Last night’s game was just another road bump in that quest for divisional supremacy, and they took care of business.

The Brewers jumped all over rookie starter Austin Gomber, as they hammered the youngster for five runs in just three and two-thirds of an inning worked. The Brewers held a 6-0 heading into the bottom of the fourth inning, and this one looked like it was all over. Give credit to the Cardinals though, they battled back and tightened the game up at 7-4 before seeing the Brewers play add-on late and win the game 12-4.

There wasn’t a game on the schedule that had more playoff ramifications than this one did yesterday. With the Brewers win and the Chicago Cubs loss against the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Brewers are now just a half of a game behind the Cubs for the Central Division crown. And with the loss for St. Louis, and the win by the Colorado Rockies, the Cards have now fallen out of playoff position as they trail the Rockies by half of a game. It is going to be a crazy finish in the National League this season! For today’s pick, we will stay right here in the thick of the playoff race as we break down the game between the Colorado Rockies and the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Philadelphia Phillies are in Colorado Wednesday for game three of a four-game series with the Rockies. The Rockies have completely dominated this series so far as they have won the first two games with a combined score of 20-4. The win last night was the Rockies fifth consecutive win, and they have now passed the St. Louis Cardinals for the second wild-card spot in the National League. For the Phillies, it has been a pitiful end to a once-promising season as they have now lost six straight games and are 6-17 in the month of September and have fallen below .500 for the first time since April.

Starting for the Rockies tonight is German Marquez (13-10 3.91 ERA), and for the Phillies, it is Nick Pivetta (7-13 4.58 ERA). The Rockies are big -185 home favorites. The game total over-under is set at ten and a half runs. First pitch is scheduled for 5:40 PM PST from Coors Field in Colorado.

This seems like a game that is almost not fair to the St. Louis Cardinals. While the Cardinals have to play the surging Brewers to wrap up the season as they fight for the wild card, the Rockies get to play this dead in the water Philly team. Its like when you are playing fantasy football and the team you really need to lose is playing a guy that is 0-12 and hasn’t set a proper lineup since week three. There are no gimmes in baseball, but if there ever were, it would be this one tonight for the Rockies.

The Rockies will start German Marquez tonight to try and extend their wild-card lead. Marquez has really turned it on down the stretch as in August and September he is 4-2 with an ERA in the low two-run range. He has won eight out of his last ten decisions, and those two losses are his only two losses going clear back to June. Marquez has really been racking up the punchouts recently as well as he has now surpassed the 200 mark on the season and has nine Ks or more in seven out of his last ten starts.

Philly will look to second-year right-hander, Nick Pivetta, to try and stop the bleeding tonight. Pivetta’s struggles are very representative of the Phillies struggles this season. He pitched well for much of the season, but in crunch time, when it really mattered, he completely no-showed. Pivetta has a total of one winning decision going back to July 12th.

The Phillies have lost seven out of his last eight starts. And he is 0-3 in four September starts. Against the Rockies this year? He made one start, pitched five innings and got blasted for six earned runs. There just isn’t a lot of good to say about Pivetta and the Phillies in this matchup.

If you read my daily picks, you know that I don’t like taking run line bets. As easy as it seems, that extra run and a half can be very hard to cover, and you should stay away from the run line unless you have a strong reason to believe the game will be a blowout. Tonight, I have a strong reason to believe this game will be a blowout. The Phillies have given up, and the Rockies are surging towards the postseason. We saw what that looked like in the first two games of this series where the Rockies pounded Philly for ten runs in both games, and I expect another beating today.

Taking a home team on the run line is a very dangerous proposition. They only get eight innings to cover that extra run and a half, so you are really playing with fire when you take them. But I just can’t pass up on all the extra juice they are giving us in this one. The game money line has the Rockies as -185 favorites. But you can actually pick up some dog money backing the Rockies on the run line, at +109.

That is almost an entire dollar’s worth of premium, and I just can’t pass that up. I think the Rockies score early and often and blow this one out again. Give me the Colorado Rockies laying a run and a half on the run line tonight at +109 in game three from Coors Field!

The Bet: Colorado Rockies -1.5 runs at +109


Jason Gray / Author

Jason is a true Las Vegas insider as he has called the sports betting capital of the world his home for sixteen years. Jason started out his career in gaming by running the biggest poker tournaments in the world and managing some of the biggest sportsbooks on the strip. Jason has transitioned out of casino operations and has been covering sports betting for the sports geek for just over two years. His main focus is on baseball, college basketball, and the NFL